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Saturday February 25th 2012

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 1 Danger

Welcome to week one of the NFL season, skid marks! This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I ended up not being able to come up with anything more clever than Rubetastic so the name will stick. As previously posted, I have been making my own NFL lines for around 5 years, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.

Quick aside: There is still a few hours to join the Gally Blog Pick ‘Em contest. Free for anyone to join, $25 prize. We have 16 players in the group already. Go HERE, NOW!

Now a cheerleader:

This is Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ cheerleader Leigh Killian. She was once on Late Night with Conan O’Brien and
has a great amount of rib cage showing.

Now the substance:

Weeks 1, 17, and 2 are the hardest NFL weeks in my opinion to handicap. I don’t attempt to make my own lines in these weeks except week 2. I will be using Sportsbook.com’s lines as a judge for this weekly post (personal preference.) Even though I feel the lines are hard to set for these three weeks does not mean there is not value to be found. On normal weeks I make my own lines, then I look at what Vegas has their lines at to see the discrepancies. After that I analyze the ones with big gaps compared to my lines.
Here are the lines that look attractive to me this week: (My picks in bold)

Lions @ Bears -6 – With the Bears favored by 6 I would place an above average size bet on the Lions. Too much up in the air for the Bears and I’m fairly certain the Lions will be making a positive albeit small step forward this year.

Browns @ Buccaneers -3 – This seems like a give up line by the oddsmakers to me. The standard line to start with for any NFL game is favoring the home team by 3 points. That’s the line they have up. Do you think the Browns and Bucs are completely equal after that? I didn’t think so, even with the Bucs at home I think the Browns will win outright in this game. And I HATE the Browns. Jake Delhomme is a bad quarterback, but he has more experience than the Freeman. The Browns running game and Josh Cribbs are the X factors that gives me a lot of confidence in the Browns for this game.

Broncos @ Jaguars -2.5 – Usually one should not place bets on teams traveling this far west to east for a game, but this early in the season I don’t think it will matter much. The Jaguars should not be favored in this game. I know Denver imploded during the second half of last season, but they will compete with San Diego this year for the AFC West division and have a winning record. Jacksonville will blow again this season unless they got a wizard on defense and a Pepsi machine on offense I didn’t hear about.

One trend I am all over this year is the Seattle Seahawks. If they are favored in a game which they inevitably will be I will most likely look to bet on the underdog. I do not believe in what the Seahawks are doing at all. I think they will falter against the spread- at least for a few weeks. Vegas has the capability of drinking the kool-aid once in a while, just not for very long.
Also, I actually like the Saints to beat the spread tonight in the season kickoff a lot. They are only favored by 5 points.

I will be giving away more tidbits I have learned about NFL betting in small increments. If something is unclear or you have any questions use the comments. I will do my best to answer anything, even questions you may think are dumb with little to no judgment. I will also take requests on what you want to know. Let’s try to make this interactive, dick touches.


Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.

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Related posts:

  1. Rubetastic: The Gally Blog Weekly NFL Betting Guide: Week 2
  2. Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 10
  3. Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 8, What Underdogs?

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