This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. As previously posted, I have been making my own NFL lines for around 5 years, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.
Back for week four, mother-truckers. I felt good about last week’s picks. They, on the other hand did not feel good about me. I went 1-2 in picks last week. I choose to learn from my experiences, though. I learned the Bears’ defense can put in some work. Many people point simply to the Packers penalties as one of the major reasons the Bears won the Monday night game. Of the 18 penalties called on Green Bay I count around 8 that could be attributed to how well the defense was playing in addition to the Bears forcing 2 turnovers and holding Green Bay to 4-10 on 3rd down. People have been focusing on the Bears’ offense now that Mike Martz is the new coordinator, but the defense appears to have improved. I’m not saying the monsters of the midway are back, but the Bears’ defense looks decent. I also learned I was right about the Jets. People jumped off that bandwagon way too fast. This is the second week the Jets have found a way to win a game in which they were the underdog. I’m cautiously optimistic about them the rest of the season at least against the spread. I also learned to trust my instincts on the Falcons. I had a feeling they were better than popular opinion held, but I didn’t stick to my guns. I think the Falcons beating the Saints was a combination of three things: 1. the Saints being the defending Super Bowl champions means they will get every team’s best game. 2. The Falcons know the Saints a little better than most teams being in the same division. Margins of victory are often smaller in division contests and 3. Garrett Hartley is a piece of shit one season wonder. I don’t mean that. I’m sure he’s a great guy. I hope he gets his shit together soon, though. I’m now 6-3-3 for the season. Let’s recap my picks for last week.
Falcons @ Saints -4: WRONG, see above
Green Bay -3 @ Chicago: WRONG, see above
Jets +2 @ Dolphins: RIGHT, see above
Now, a lovely cheerleader and on to week 4.
I always make my own lines before I look at what Vegas has. I swear. I never peek. The reason I write that is because the lines I made this week were so close to what Vegas has. There is only one game in which I have a different team favored than Vegas does. That is the Washington Redskins at the Philadephia Eagles. The national focus for this game is mainly off the field. I’m more intrigued by what will happen on the field quite frankly. Vegas has the Eagles favored by 6 points (PHI -6) while I have the Redskins favored by 3 points (WAS -3.) I see why the Eagles may be favored to win the game. Michael Vick has been playing well, but look at the teams he has been playing well against. Vick came in and lost to the Packers in week 1. In week 2 the Vick-led Eagles barely beat the Lions, and in week 3 Vick played well against a horrible Jaguars team. Vick aside there are other huge factors in this game. The biggest factor I see in this game is Donovan McNabb in what I will call the Montana Principle. Historically quarterbacks who play against their former teams do well and often win. Think Joe Montana with the Chiefs, Kurt Warner lighting up the Rams, and Brett Favre sticking it to the Packers. Not only do quarterbacks tend to do well against former teams they often play out of their freaking minds. I like Washington this weekend. Let me just leave it at that since this is getting long. On to the picks:
Indianapolis -7 @ Jacksonville- Really? After the Eagles trounced Jax? It’s a division game, but the Colts own the Jags just like everyone else will this season. Jacksonville is bad. I can’t say it any more plainly than that. I had my line set at IND -11 and I thought that high of a number would still induce foolish betting for the underdog.
Houston -3 @ Oakland- Yes, the formidable (Chris Berman voice) Oooakland Raaaaaidehs (Chris Berman murder-suicide.) I had my line set at HOU -7. I honestly am at a loss for why this line is so low. Is it because of Andre Johnson being injured and possibly not playing? Yeh, like they need him. O, Owen Daniels might miss the game too? It’s the Raiders, people. I actually like Gradkowski, but he doesn’t make a 4 point difference to me.
Washington +6 @ Philadelphia- I have already established that I like Washington to win this game outright so if you’re giving me 6 points I will bet an above average amount. I think McNabb will stick it to the Eagles, but that the Redskins will likely run the ball a lot, control the clock, and try to keep the game low scoring.
Bonus game: New York Jets -5.5 @ Buffalo- Wait, because the Bills finally showed a little life against the Patriots we are supposed to think they are for real? Did people catch the part of the NFL news cycle where the Bills cut their starting quarterback? That’s the sure sign of a team getting things together. How about you guys fix the offensive line instead of replacing the guy behind the line getting killed. The Bills have some talent, but their defense can not stop the run. The Jets have been known to run the ball a bit. I set my line at NYJ -7, but I could easily see the Jets winning by 10.
I started working on the power rankings I promised based on turnover differential and third down percentage I promised. I have the data, but my excel skills seem to have dulled a little from non-use. I will try and work on them and have them for a separate post here at TGB next week. I’m 6-3-3 against the spread so far this season. Stick around and let’s all see how I do throughout the season.
Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.