This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.
I’m later than a hooker that lets you go raw dog’s period this week so I’ll keep it short. Last week sucked. I only got one game correct. So I was 1-2 last week bringing this season’s total to 22-17-3. All I can say about that is it is better than a losing record. My head is well above water for the season. Let’s look back at last week.
New Orleans -3.5 @ Dallas: WRONG. My thinking here was Dallas is a team that just went through a huge transition to a first-time head coach and if there would be an optimum time to falter it would be on a short week. I was right about them faltering, but wrong on the spread by a half point. That is one of the worst feelings as a bettor, to be wrong by half a point.
Green Bay +2 @ Atlanta: WRONG. I thought Green Bay would win outright. Obviously we all saw what happened in the game. If the Falcons can get consistent they have a chance to be a contender in the playoffs this year. I have been impressed with the team, but they have faltered at times. Matt Ryan is maturing at an exponential rate.
San Fransisco -1 @ Arizona: RIGHT. I was very confused by this line and remain so. As much as Arizona is in disarray right now I am tempted to take the other team against the spread the rest of the season. They’ll get another win, though. If they have any division games left look for them to try to be a spoiler and probably succeed. San Fransisco is playing better, but they are still a middle of the pack team.
Let’s look at a cheerleader and then this week’s picks against the spread.
This week has some interesting matchups in which I think the quarterback playing or not playing will make the difference.
Cleveland @ Miami -5: Jake Delhomme is starting this week. Aaawww, peaches! (That’s what I hypothesize Jake exclaims after he throws each interception in his attempt to break the all-time interceptions thrown record.) Miami at home by at least a touchdown. No brainer. I would bet an above average amount on this game if betting were legal where I live.
Jacksonville @ Tennessee -3: Hear me out on this one. Kerry Collins is not a bad quarterback. He is about 3rd or 4th on the all-time passing yard list among active players. He makes the difference for the Titans this week. Tennessee is at home in a playoff race against a team they have already beaten badly at their home stadium this week. Fisher historically owns the Jaguars. I am a fan of the Titans so I can’t advise betting above your standard bet, but if I were betting I would double what I normally bet and pick out a prostitute for later. Moss will get the ball in this game and Chris Johnson will have at least a touchdown and 85 yards rushing. Am I getting too bold with my predictions? Probably.
St. Louis -3.5 @ Arizona: Remember what I said about possibly betting against Arizona the rest of the season. When I saw this line it became obvious to me Vegas is thinking the same thing. This line seems golden on the surface, but you have to go a bit deeper on this line. Remember Vegas is playing chess not checkers. The Rams won for the first time on the road last week. That is a big deal for this team. To have to go on the road out west for a second consecutive week and try to win again is difficult for most teams, but we are talking about the Cardinals team that is likely frustrated and looking to play with at least some pride this week. The problem is Derek Anderson is most definitely not the same Derek Anderson who made the Pro Bowl a few years ago. The Cardinals will play a little better this week but for this team that means maybe a field goal or at best a touchdown.
Bonus game- Chicago -5 @ Detroit: Drew Stanton is starting this week. The Bears defense has been impressive in almost every game this season. If they can slow down Michael Vick like they did last week the Beard defense can send Drew Stanton back in time. As far as the Chicago offense they are the type of offensive units who thrive against bad defenses. As long as the Bears offensive line can stop Suh, Vanden Bosch, and whoever else rushes for the Lions this will be a good week for Martz, Cutler, and especially Forte. Book it.
Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.