Sports, Satire and Bad Jokes
Tuesday September 27th 2011

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 14, in the Hole Again and Not the Good Kind

I know not many people read this. I see the blog statistics and everything, but I care about this as a matter of pride. Last week’s performance 1-3 on picks against the spread is simply appalling. I’m ashamed. I plan to unleash hell on this week’s picks, but not in the same sort of sucky way Mike Tomlin meant last year. Let’s look at my screw ups and laugh. We can laugh about it, right guys? I’m now 23-20-3 on the season. Ouch.

Cleveland @ Miami -5: WRONG. I thought Miami had somewhat rallied after going on the road and beating a much-improved Oakland Raiders team. Miami’s inconsistency this season should have signaled me to stay away from picking this game. Cleveland’s not any better. Some people actually think this is a good team. They have had some great upsets, though.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee -3: WRONG. O, Tennessee decided to not play against a division rival. Time to consider betting against Tennessee every week. I don’t care what people say. Most of the players on this team have quit, and I say that being a Titans fan.

St. Louis -3.5 @ Arizona: RIGHT. I had the feeling Arizona was a good bet after how horrible they have been playing. Still this was only St. Louis’ second road win of the season.

Bonus game- Chicago -5 @ Detroit: WRONG. I hate being wrong by one point as much as the Westboro Baptist Church fags hate… fags. I guess the lesson here is Detroit should be respected against the spread. I guess.
Let’s take a look at a cheerleader and then this week’s picks.

This week I am either going to completely redeem myself or dig myself deeper in the hole. I have my lines set very similar to what Vegas has on most games this week. I only have different teams favored than Vegas on two games. I like my games for inducing equal action as well as Vegas’ (that is the point of betting lines, after all), but seeing the Vegas lines makes me want to pick those games. Here goes. I’m picking more games than usual this week to try to get back on the winning track. This might not end well.

Cleveland @ Buffalo -1: Now that Buffalo has the monkey of having not won a game off of their back I like them to pick up a couple of more wins this season. This is the perfect game to pick up another win. Cleveland is having to travel a good distance in back to back weeks and Buffalo does have a decent home advantage. Despite losing games Buffalo has been able to put up a good amount of points in some games. I also like Jake Delhomme to wake from the dream state he played in last week and remember he’s Jake Delhomme and throw a few picks to Buffalo. I had the same line as Vegas on this game.

Cincinatti -8.5 @ Pittsburgh: I would like this game even more the higher the line gets favoring Pittsburgh. The Bengals will most likely not win the game, but they are desperate and still have talent on the team. If Cincy can get the medium passing game and screen passes going I think they can work on a Pittsburgh defense that will want to blitz Carson Palmer. The Steelers are probably still sore from last Sunday night’s tough game against the Ravens.

Tampa Bay -2 @ Washington: The Bucs lost a tough game at home last week against Atlanta, but if they can hang with Atlanta they should be able to beat the Redskins by more than 2 points.

St. Louis +9 @ New Orleans: The bottom line is New Orleans is not the behemoth they were last season. The Saints will still likely win this game, but St. Louis can keep this game closer than 9 points. The Saints may have Pierre Thomas back this week, but I think him and Reggie Bush are more a frustration than a help at this point. Ivory and Julius Jones seem more capable than guys coming off of medium-term injuries.

Seattle +5.5 @ San Fransisco: I seem to have been doing well this year with the NFC West. I am convinced Seattle will win this game outright. San Fransisco is going back to Alex Smith at quarterback so Smith will have a chip on his shoulder and try even harded to force those interceptions in there. This is one of the lines where Vegas and I differed on the favorite. I had Seattle favored.

Denver @ Arizona +5.5: O, so just because Dallas and Minnesota made head coaching changes and had instant success you think that will happen this week as Denver’s running backs’ coach takes over as interim head coach? Not bloody likely. This game is for gamblers, though. I would put a less than average amount on this game. This is the other game where Vegas and I differed. I’ve been doing ok in the NFC West this year.

Kansas City @ San Diego -6.5: This game wasn’t on the board at Sportsbook.com where I normally pull the Vegas lines from since KC QB Matt Cassell is most likely not playing. I had my line at San Diego -9 so if you can find San Diego -6.5 I would be all over it. That would be a “bet the mortgage” type of situation. I got the 6.5 number from ESPN’s pick ‘em contest.

Philadelphia -3.5 @ Dallas: I can just see Michael Vick carving up Dallas’ secondary on 20 yard in routes. This game will be ugly. Dallas does not have the people to stop Vick. Dallas will miss Dez Bryant even though he has been quiet in games before being put on injured reserve. He has been quiet because opposing defenses have been keying on him a little more. Have you noticed how Dallas has been running the ball a little bit better? Defenses have been having to account for 2.5 receivers plus Jason Witten. (I only count Roy Williams as a half of a guy.)

Here’s hoping for an improvement on 23-20-3. That’s pretty bad.

Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.



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