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Monday August 22nd 2011

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 15, At Least We Have Cheerleaders

This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.

Last week I decided to pick a bigger selection of games against the spread. Let’s see how that worked out. I’ll give you a hint, about zero sum. Let’s look back on the week of picks that has brought me to 26-25-3. A season that began with so much promise has been dashed without remorse. At least we have cheerleaders to look at it.

Cleveland @ Buffalo -1: RIGHT. Buffalo at home, playing teams tough all season, and showing they can put up some offense and Cleveland being exposed recently and starting Delhomme again- easy bet.

Cincinatti -8.5 @ Pittsburgh: WRONG. I thought with Big Ben struggling through some serious injuries the Bengals might have enough of a bump to keep it close. Apparently not.

Tampa Bay -2 @ Washington: WRONG. I’m not saying this game was fixed, but the Redskins bobbled an extra point at the end of the game that would have sent the game into overtime. HMMMMMMMMMM>>>>>………….>>>…..

St. Louis +9 @ New Orleans: WRONG. I think people, including me, have been sleeping on the Saints this season because they lost some games early and haven’t been winning in the spectacular fashion to which we have grown accustomed. They are a quiet 10-3. I focused on the the Rams and thinking they had a scrapper’s chance in this matchup.

Seattle +5.5 @ San Fransisco: WRONG. Neither of these teams is for real, but Seattle has been doing okay against mediocre teams this year. I did not think San Fransisco had the ability to put up 40 points, but I guess Alex Smith is trying not to suck. That’s probably good for his career.

Denver @ Arizona +5.5: RIGHT. I had a very good feeling this would be the exception to the rule of interim head coaches winning their first games this season because there’s a bit more of a mess than Jason Garrett inherited in Dallas and Leslie Frazier inherited in Minnesota. I think Josh McDaniels ripped the crown molding off the walls and the electrical outlets out of the walls on the way out of Denver.

Kansas City @ San Diego -6.5: RIGHT. The only line I really saw for this game was San Diego -6.5 which was way too low. I had my line at San Diego -9. On the road and without Cassell I’m not at all surprised the Chiefs weren’t able to score.

Philadelphia -3.5 @ Dallas: WRONG. A freaking half point. Love it.
Now a cheerleader and let’s look at next week.

There are some interesting lines on games this week. I feel good about these picks for whatever that’s worth.

Chicago -3.5 @ Minnesota: This line isn’t on the board at most sportsbooks right now. I pulled this off of the ESPN Pigskin Pick ‘em contest, but this is another bet the mortgage scenario. The reason this game isn’t on the board is because the Vikings are not sure what they are going to be doing at quarterback for the game. I think there’s a chance Favre goes, but the team has placed Tavaris Jackson on IR and signed Patrick Ramsey. Joe Webb is also a possibility. Also the location of this game is in question with the Vikings stadium still not ready after the roof collapse. There is a strong possibility this game will be played outside. That favors the Bears. Take this game to the back.

Kansas City @ St. Louis +1: St Louis is at home (where they have won the majority of their games this season), and Matt Cassell may be back at QB for the Chiefs but he will not be 100%. I would pick the Rams if Cassell hadn’t just had surgery.

Denver @ Oakland -6.5: Denver is not going to beat Oakland at home. Oakland had a tough road loss last week after they were GASHED in the running game. Good thing Denver doesn’t have nearly as good of a running game and they don’t have to make the dreaded west to east coast trip.

Arizona @ Carolina -2.5: I’m not in love with this pick, but the two worst teams in the NFL right now is a matchup I just have to pick. Arizona does have to travel from west to east and Carolina has shown more to me recently despite the Cardinals beating the Broncos last week. I think it’ll be a low scoring game too.

New Orleans @ Baltimore -1: I get this line. I understand it. I really do. New Orleans is playing well,  and Baltimore has a feeling around them that the games they have lost have been against the elite teams and many of the games could have gone either way. This line is really smart. It’s much more complex than I really feel like going into since no one reads this shit anyway, but this is a fascinating line. I like Baltimore in a game in which the lead will change a few times.

Detroit @ Tampa Bay -5.5: Drew Stanton had a good week two weeks ago which shocked the hell out of me. Last week we saw it was probably a fluke. The Lions can’t win on the road. I just don’t buy it. Tampa Bay lost against the spread last week, but this week I think they’ve got it.

Philadelphia +3 @ New York Giants: I think the Eagles can stop the run. They will be able to key on it a little better since the Giants receiving corp has so many injuries. I think this game will be close, but the Eagles will win outright.

26-25-3. I hang my head in shame.

Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.

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Related posts:

  1. Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 14, in the Hole Again and Not the Good Kind
  2. Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 8, What Underdogs?
  3. Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 10

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