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Sunday September 25th 2011

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 17 Wrapping Up the Regular Season

This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.

As I stated at the beginning of the season the hardest 3 weeks for me to handicap are weeks 1, 2, and 17 of the NFL season. May I remind you of a few years ago when Bill Belichick “didn’t” but allegedly did tank a game in week 17 because it gave the Patriots a better draw in the first round of the playoffs. Another year I remember the Colts letting the Titans when Tony Dungy was still coaching the Colts. You can not convince me there are not shenanigans afoot in week 17 of the NFL. On top of that you have various teams checking out because they are ready for the season to be over since they are not making the playoffs. Still yet one of the most influential factors in these late season games is the coaching. Coaches are coaching for jobs either at their current location or to make themselves more appealing for the next possible position. I say all of that to say week 17 is a minefield. Stay frosty. It’s chess not checkers. Let’s look back at last week’s picks. I’m now 34-31-3 in picks against the spread this season.

New York Jets @ Chicago -1: RIGHT. The Jets lost and still made the playoffs. What was their motivation to win this game?

Dallas -7 @ Arizona: WRONG. Wow, maybe that ginger doesn’t want the coaching job in Dallas.

Baltimore -3.5 @ Cleveland: RIGHT. Cleveland is such a fraud team. I knew Baltimore remembered the first time the two teams met this season and would make the necessary adjustments. The only surprise I had at the outcome of this game was the margin of victory wasn’t greater for the Ravens.

Detroit @ Miami -3.5: WRONG. So the Lions went on the road to play Florida teams in consecutive weeks and won both games when they haven’t won a game on the road in how long? I can’t believe anyone predicted that outcome. If they say they did then they are a witch. BURN THEM!

Houston -3 @ Denver: WRONG. I hate Tebow so much. I don’t have many mortal enemies, but I’m considering adding another entry to the list. Make some room Leno.

New York Giants +2.5 @ Green Bay: WRONG. So wrong. I was operating under the assumption Aaron Rodgers was either not going to play or was going to be limited at least in the play calls that were going to be made for him. Way wrong. I’m completely floored by the Giants defense getting manhandled like they did. I’m not feeling as good about the Giants against the spread and in the playoffs.

New Orleans +2.5 @ Atlanta: RIGHT. This seemed like a split series to me. I kind of these teams meet in the playoffs. OOOOOOHHHH the storylines are getting me wet already.

Cheerleader picture then the week 17 picks……

Despite what I wrote above I am salivating at the possibilities this week. Then I immediately correct myself and try to realize my anticipation should be a warning sign. I know one thing for sure. I’ve been burned so many times on this one mistake I am never making it again… that much. Don’t ever “believe” in a team that needs to win to get into the playoffs. Don’t believe in the fire in their belly. If they have to win in week 17 in order to get into the playoffs most likely they aren’t strong enough to get it done. Here’s this week’s minefield of picks.

Jacksonville @ Houston -3: The Jaguars will not have David Garrard this weekend, not that he’s Brett Favre or anything, but it is his team and he is serviceable about half the time. The big hit is the Jaguars will be without Maurice Jones-Drew this weekend in Houston. As far as Houston goes the season has been another huge disappointment for the Texans, but the consensus is Gary Kubiak will be back again next season with the defensive staff being fired and Wade Phillips being added as defensive coordinator next season. I actually love that idea. Of course it will begin anew the cycle of Wade Phillips being recognized as a great defensive coordinator and another owner foolishly thinking Wade would be a good head coach. NFL owners are not very good at learning from history. Even though most insiders think Kubiak is safe it probably wouldn’t hurt to win another division game.

Arizona +6 @ San Fransisco: I expect San Fran to disintegrate. I think enough players in Arizona are playing for jobs that they’ll have some fight in them for this game. I think they even have a few players that will play for pride. I think the San Fran players are going to be dazed from Singletary being fired. I think even though the Niners sucked this year a lot of players were really on his side.

Tennessee +9.5 @ Indianapolis:I think there’s at least a 70% chance the Colts win this game, but only about a 15% chance they beat the Titans by more than 9 points. A touchdown sure, but not 10 points. A division game still means something and I expect the Titans to play bitter and beat up the Colts to soften them up for the playoffs. I expect a few fights in this game.

Minnesota +3 @ Detroit: This is a gamble game. I think Shaun Hill is going to play this week so Detroit at home has a good chance of winning. Minnesota played very hard last week. I think the players want to see Coach Frazier take over permanently. Joe Webb has also been impressive enough for at least 3 points factored into handicapping. I wouldn’t bet this game unless you have some gamble in you.

34-31-3 in the picks this year. I’m trying to end the regular season on a high note, though. I will pick each playoff game and maybe even some Super Bowl prop bets. That is, if you all want to continue to lose money.

Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.

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Related posts:

  1. Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 16, Finishing Strong
  2. Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 9, I Suck Edition
  3. Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 10

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