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Wednesday January 25th 2012

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide- Wildcard Weekend Filled with Bold Predictions

This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.

Last week I finished up a disappointing regular season in which I hit the skids pretty hard in the mid to late part of the season. Hit the skids? That sounds like it should be a gay sex euphemism. Here’s a recap of my week 17 picks that ended up giving me a final regular season record of 36-33-3 against the spread. I’m above water which is pretty much how I ended every season when I used to bet online. Keep in mind that some of the ones I got right I was very sure of and would have placed a larger bet and suggested you should do the same.

She's got just the kind of thickness I like, not that much

The playoffs are always interesting both to watch and handicap. There are some tried and true principles which govern recent NFL playoff football and some anomalous tidbits which need to be taken into consideration. Some of the widely agreed upon rules which are never hard and fast (tee hee) but should be considered with each matchup are:
1. Quarterback play is exponentially more key to a team’s victory in the playoffs than the regular season as far as confidence, production during the regular season, and playoff experience.
2. Prior playoff experience for coaches is huge whether it be as a head coach, player, or as an assistant coach. Sean Payton was the offensive coordinator and play caller when the Giants lost to the Ravens in the Super Bowl. He knew he had to seize the freaking day to have a chance to win, and he was not going to get burned again.
Here’s my picks for Wildcard Weekend:

New OrleansĀ  -10.5 @ Seattle: I went back and forth a bit on this game. With such a large spread, the Seattle home field advantage, and the Saints running game looking so shaky with all the injuries I think Seattle will make a game of it for a while. Matt Hasselback and the Seahawk defense just does not have the juice to pull this off. The strange thing is I even leaned closer to picking Seattle when I still thought Charlie Whitehurst was going to start. He may still get some playing time in this game depending on how well the Saints rush the quarterback.

New York Jets @ Indianapolis -2.5: It pains me to pick the Colts, but the home field advantage is a factor as well as Peyton Manning.The hidden key to this game is the Cotls’ defense. A lot of people are still operating under the assumption the Colts’ defense is horrible since it was for most of the season. They have played very well the past couple of weeks, though. It’s a trend with the Colts. If Indy gets out to an early lead this game will be over after the first quarter. Joseph Addai is back for the Colts also.

Baltimore @ Kansas City +3: This actually came to me in a vision last night. I awoke on the couch after having fallen asleep to a metaphorical light bulb above my head. I feel confident about this pick. Think about it. The Ravens defense is experienced, yes, but that’s another way of saying they are old. Ed Reed is really broken down right now, but we all know Ray Lewis is still going to make some plays. Joe Flacco is the most worrisome thing about Baltimore to me. The Ravens running game does not inspire me either. Ray Rice did not have the year everyonhttp://thegallyblog.com/wp-admin/post-new.phpe expected, and the whole running game has been stifled a little too much to make me confident. The Chiefs have Matt Cassell back and healthy which is very good news. The offense, although it relies on running the ball a lot, goes through Cassell. It lives and dies on him. Cassell is playing with a pair of brass balls lately. I really like this guy and how his relationship with Todd Haley has developed. Remember that vision I told you I awoke too last night? It was Jamaal Charles gashing the Ravens defense. He was getting like 8 yards a carry and Thomas Jones came in and was doing just as well. I think Arrowhead will be rocking with delight this weekend.

Green Bay @ Philadelphia -2.5: This pick was the toughest to make. The obvious analysis is Vick has been playing lights out but so has the Green Bay defense. Who will win that matchup? Then you have how well the Green Bay defense has been playing, but wait, how well have they been playing? How well have they been running the ball? A team needs to be able to run the ball on the road to dictate tempo more so than when they are at home, and I do not have confidence Green Bay can run the ball at all. They’ve done alright, but their running game is very suspect. The Eagles, on the other hand, can run the ball when they actually call running plays with Lesean McCoy. McCoy has been playing very well this year, and I expect to be a major asset for the Eagles in the playoffs. There’s also some stat about Andy Reid winning the first playoff game which is in their favor, but I don’t feel like looking it up.

The regular season is over , and it’s the playoffs now so as Bill Belichick likes to say, “Everyone is 0-0 now.” Yeah! I’m 0-0 too. I write that with as much enthusiasm as Belichick says it.

Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.

This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.

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Related posts:

  1. Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 15, At Least We Have Cheerleaders
  2. Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 16, Finishing Strong
  3. Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide- Divisional Round Playoff Picks Guaranteed to Lose

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