The Gally Blog » Prognostication

Rubetastic: Super Bowl Betting Extravaganza with Prop Bets

Nonpopulist — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 01:32:04 +0000

This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.

Super Bowl week! It’s the most wonderful time of year! So magical. Sports writers and television personalities regale us with tales of weather, hotel continental breakfasts, and other stories central to the actual game.
Let’s look back quickly at my Championship game picks.

Green Bay -3.5 @ Chicago: RIGHT. I don’t think the score would have been all that different if Cutler had been able to play the whole game. The Packers may have even won by more than they did. Green Bay was just top-down a better team. Clay Matthews disease gives him super human powers that are hard to contain.

New York Jets + 3.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers: WRONG. I don’t quite know what to say about this pick. I was less confident in it, but I thought the Jets defense would make the difference in this game. The game was too big for the Jets. Their play didn’t live up to their gameplan either.
On to the extravaganza!

Since neither team has cheerleaders I picked one of my favorites from this past NFL season.

One of the most interesting aspects of the Super Bowl is all of the prop bets. You can place bets on whether the coin toss lands on heads or tails (which I have bet on before), the over/under on the length of the national anthem, who will win the MVP and a host of other ways you can lose money. Go here for a complete list of action, but I’ll be highlighting some below plus picking against the actual spread as usual.

How Long will it take Christina Aguilera to Sing the Star Spangled Banner (from starting note to last note sung) Under/Over 1:54: I know what you’re thinking, suckers bet, right? There’s money to be made here. I looked up videos of Aguilera on Youtube singing the national anthem. I saw some over a minute and fifty-four seconds and some under. I tended toward more recent performances and I’m sold on the under on this one. I think she’ll embellish a little less than in her performances at the NBA Finals. Well, I should say the NFL event people will gently suggest she embellish less. This should be a classier performance since it will likely be one of the most watched things on television ever. It’s not about you, X-tina.

More after the jump—-

What Will The Over/Under TV Rating Be Over/Under 46. If I were actually able to bet legally I would take the over no doubt, 100%. The only factor in this to me is the power outages across the country. There’s still a few days for more people to get back online. I think this will be the most watched Super Bowl in history, easily over 46 Nielsen Rating.

Steelers vs Packers – First Score of the Game will be Touchdown or any other score: Bet on touchdown.

Will there be a Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown- Yes or no: Yes, so yes.

Will One Quarter be Scoreless – 1 Quarter will have 0 – 0 Score (Overtime Quarters Count) Yes or no: This is a ballsy bet, but I say yes. The Super Bowl always seems to move quickly. I think either the first or second quarter will be scoreless.

I could do a lot more, but I’m going to be horribly wrong on all these already.

And now to the actual spread…

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 @ Green Bay Packers: I’m flip flopping a bit here because I said on the first ever Gally Blog Podcast last night that I predicted the final score to be Green Bay 27- Pittsburgh 21. The more I have thought about it the more I like the Steelers in this game. I think in the back of my mind I knew I was going to take the underdog the whole time.

Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide- The Championship Round Is Tight Like a Sex Euphemism

Nonpopulist — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 17:50:22 +0000

Last week was a pleasantly surprising rebound for my prognosticating skills. I went 3-1 in picking the Divisional round playoff games. I’m still undefeated in picking my nose. Sadly my record for the playoffs is only 3-5. That’s right, I picked all four games wrong the wildcard round of the playoffs. Let’s look back at last week since I did so well then.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh -3: RIGHT. I had a feeling Pittsburgh would just be too strong for Baltimore. I thought Flacco would struggle a bit more at quarterback than he did, though. I liked PIT having homefield advantage in this game as well. I love Big Ben’s sexy new nose too.

Green Bay +2.5 @ Atlanta: RIGHT. Green Bay’s defense was playing too well for Atlanta to be favored in this game. I had a strong feeling that Atlanta was not ready to take it to the next level although I think the Falcons will be strong in the playoffs for the next few years.

Seattle +10 @ Chicago: WRONG. This is the only game I picked wrong. I knew Chicago would win the game, but I did not know they would dominate like they did. I thought Seattle would ride a little bit of momentum and Jay Cutler would be good for pick-6 or two. Cutler surprisingly made very few mistakes.

New York Jets +9 @ New England: RIGHT. I knew this spread was way too big for division rivals who had split wins during the regular season.
On to the AFC and NFC Championship games, but first a cheerleader.

I expect another weekend of good games this weekend. Besides that no one is truly sure of what’s going to happen. I’ve heard some matchup talk around the AFC Championship game saying things aren’t looking favorable for the Jets. I can see that at first glance, but this week is going to take more balls than brains to bet.

Green Bay -3.5 @ Chicago: Chicago would have a more stated advantage having the game on their home field if the team they were playing didn’t play their games at a place called “The Frozen Tundra.” Rodgers and the Packers’ defense are both playing too well to lose this game. Cutler will throw at least two interceptions this game. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers win by a touchdown or ten points. The Bears will be able to stop either the running game or the passing game but certainly no both.

New York Jets +3.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I’m going to admit this pick is 75% hunch so bet accordingly. I think this game will be close and that’s why I pick the Jets in this line. Pittsburgh is certainly likely to win the game, but I would not be surprised one bit if the Steelers only win by a field goal. Mark Sanchez is going to put the Jets at a disadvantage, but they can play well even if he just has an average game. Take the Jets and the points. The Jets defense is the x-factor in this game.

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide- Divisional Round Playoff Picks Guaranteed to Lose

Nonpopulist — Sat, 15 Jan 2011 01:08:25 +0000

Let’s see, last week I achieved the impossible, the seemingly impossible, as it were. I stank fingered a nun. I know, right? *Bro fives* I also picked each NFL game from Wildcard weekend wrong against the spread. I was on the wrong side of the bet each time. This should be the point at which you click away from this page or leave a comment calling me stupid. Let’s review my picks from last week that put me at a disappointing 0-4 for the postseason.

New Orleans -10.5 @ Seattle: WRONG. No one saw Seattle winning this game. I should have gone with my instinct that the spread was too big.

New York Jets @ Indianapolis -2.5: WRONG. Peyton crapped the bed in the playoffs again. I should have seen that coming.

Baltimore @ Kansas City +3: WRONG. My vision in which I saw Jamaal Charles running for a long touchdown and Kansas City upsetting Baltimore was partly correct but was obviously a product of Satan. I’ll get you for this, Satan.

Green Bay @ Philadelphia -2.5: WRONG. Mike Vick, you were supposed to be a Cinderella. You let me down.

Let’s move on to next week.

I shouldn’t have any confidence in my picks this week, but I do. I’m such an idiot. If you agree with any of these picks make sure you change your mind.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh -3: This game is a toss up. I give Pittsburgh the edge due to playoff experience. I guess I should say recent successful playoff experience. Flacco is still a liability.

Green Bay +2.5 @ Atlanta: I’d like to think Atlanta has a chance in this game. I do not think they should be favored, though. I feel pretty good about taking the dog when the dog has Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson, and Tramon Williams playing out of their mind. The Green Bay runnning game has gotten a lot stronger. In looking at the matchups I think Green Bay has the clear advantage in this game.

Seattle +10 @ Chicago: Seattle will carry over more momentum into this game than people think. I think I’m one of the few people who give Seattle a chance to win in this game. They have been inconsistent and not played up to their talent and potential this year in several games (the Oakland game comes to mind), but the Seahawks are firing on all cylinders now. The most important thing to consider in this game is Jay Cutler can implode at any time. Chicago’s defense should secure the win for the Bears, but not if they stay on the field the whole game because of offensive miscues.

New York Jets +9 @ New England: This looks like the easiest money to be made this weekend. I guess Vegas is depending on the Patriot honks betting on New England. I didn’t watch this line earlier in the week so I don’t know if the line has moved at all, but I know it would take a real homer or someone who listens to nonstop ESPN hype to bet the Patriots at -9

Let’s see how I do this week.

The Gally Blog’s BCS National Championship Preview- Auburn Tigers Vs. Oregon Ducks

Nonpopulist — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 00:06:55 +0000

Here’s a quick national championship preview. This is a sports blog fer crissakes. The Auburn Tigers and Oregon Duck both have prolific offenses, but everyone knows the SEC is bigger, faster, and stronger than the Wack-10. Tonight’s game may, in fact, be the shootout everyone has predicted, but I think Auburn will come out on top in the end. I predict Auburn will win 41-35. The Auburn defense has been shaky for many quarters this year, but has always been able to come up with a big stop or two or a turnover or two when they’ve needed it. If Nick Fairley can get a hold of anybody he will make an impact although Oregon’s skill players may be too fast for him. I think whichever team forces more turnovers will win.
Plus check out this video someone made for Oregon, totally gay.

Now check out this video of some guy getting people in South Korea to cheer for Auburn I saw posted on Track ‘Em Tigers:

I think we can see the advantage clearly goes to Auburn based on the above videos alone. I rest my case.

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide- Wildcard Weekend Filled with Bold Predictions

Nonpopulist — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 20:09:38 +0000

Last week I finished up a disappointing regular season in which I hit the skids pretty hard in the mid to late part of the season. Hit the skids? That sounds like it should be a gay sex euphemism. Here’s a recap of my week 17 picks that ended up giving me a final regular season record of 36-33-3 against the spread. I’m above water which is pretty much how I ended every season when I used to bet online. Keep in mind that some of the ones I got right I was very sure of and would have placed a larger bet and suggested you should do the same.

: She's got just the kind of thickness I like, not that much

The playoffs are always interesting both to watch and handicap. There are some tried and true principles which govern recent NFL playoff football and some anomalous tidbits which need to be taken into consideration. Some of the widely agreed upon rules which are never hard and fast (tee hee) but should be considered with each matchup are:
1. Quarterback play is exponentially more key to a team’s victory in the playoffs than the regular season as far as confidence, production during the regular season, and playoff experience.
2. Prior playoff experience for coaches is huge whether it be as a head coach, player, or as an assistant coach. Sean Payton was the offensive coordinator and play caller when the Giants lost to the Ravens in the Super Bowl. He knew he had to seize the freaking day to have a chance to win, and he was not going to get burned again.
Here’s my picks for Wildcard Weekend:

New Orleans -10.5 @ Seattle: I went back and forth a bit on this game. With such a large spread, the Seattle home field advantage, and the Saints running game looking so shaky with all the injuries I think Seattle will make a game of it for a while. Matt Hasselback and the Seahawk defense just does not have the juice to pull this off. The strange thing is I even leaned closer to picking Seattle when I still thought Charlie Whitehurst was going to start. He may still get some playing time in this game depending on how well the Saints rush the quarterback.

New York Jets @ Indianapolis -2.5: It pains me to pick the Colts, but the home field advantage is a factor as well as Peyton Manning.The hidden key to this game is the Cotls’ defense. A lot of people are still operating under the assumption the Colts’ defense is horrible since it was for most of the season. They have played very well the past couple of weeks, though. It’s a trend with the Colts. If Indy gets out to an early lead this game will be over after the first quarter. Joseph Addai is back for the Colts also.

Baltimore @ Kansas City +3: This actually came to me in a vision last night. I awoke on the couch after having fallen asleep to a metaphorical light bulb above my head. I feel confident about this pick. Think about it. The Ravens defense is experienced, yes, but that’s another way of saying they are old. Ed Reed is really broken down right now, but we all know Ray Lewis is still going to make some plays. Joe Flacco is the most worrisome thing about Baltimore to me. The Ravens running game does not inspire me either. Ray Rice did not have the year everyonhttp://thegallyblog.com/wp-admin/post-new.phpe expected, and the whole running game has been stifled a little too much to make me confident. The Chiefs have Matt Cassell back and healthy which is very good news. The offense, although it relies on running the ball a lot, goes through Cassell. It lives and dies on him. Cassell is playing with a pair of brass balls lately. I really like this guy and how his relationship with Todd Haley has developed. Remember that vision I told you I awoke too last night? It was Jamaal Charles gashing the Ravens defense. He was getting like 8 yards a carry and Thomas Jones came in and was doing just as well. I think Arrowhead will be rocking with delight this weekend.

Green Bay @ Philadelphia -2.5: This pick was the toughest to make. The obvious analysis is Vick has been playing lights out but so has the Green Bay defense. Who will win that matchup? Then you have how well the Green Bay defense has been playing, but wait, how well have they been playing? How well have they been running the ball? A team needs to be able to run the ball on the road to dictate tempo more so than when they are at home, and I do not have confidence Green Bay can run the ball at all. They’ve done alright, but their running game is very suspect. The Eagles, on the other hand, can run the ball when they actually call running plays with Lesean McCoy. McCoy has been playing very well this year, and I expect to be a major asset for the Eagles in the playoffs. There’s also some stat about Andy Reid winning the first playoff game which is in their favor, but I don’t feel like looking it up.

The regular season is over , and it’s the playoffs now so as Bill Belichick likes to say, “Everyone is 0-0 now.” Yeah! I’m 0-0 too. I write that with as much enthusiasm as Belichick says it.

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 17 Wrapping Up the Regular Season

Nonpopulist — Fri, 31 Dec 2010 21:17:04 +0000

As I stated at the beginning of the season the hardest 3 weeks for me to handicap are weeks 1, 2, and 17 of the NFL season. May I remind you of a few years ago when Bill Belichick “didn’t” but allegedly did tank a game in week 17 because it gave the Patriots a better draw in the first round of the playoffs. Another year I remember the Colts letting the Titans when Tony Dungy was still coaching the Colts. You can not convince me there are not shenanigans afoot in week 17 of the NFL. On top of that you have various teams checking out because they are ready for the season to be over since they are not making the playoffs. Still yet one of the most influential factors in these late season games is the coaching. Coaches are coaching for jobs either at their current location or to make themselves more appealing for the next possible position. I say all of that to say week 17 is a minefield. Stay frosty. It’s chess not checkers. Let’s look back at last week’s picks. I’m now 34-31-3 in picks against the spread this season.

New York Jets @ Chicago -1: RIGHT. The Jets lost and still made the playoffs. What was their motivation to win this game?

Dallas -7 @ Arizona: WRONG. Wow, maybe that ginger doesn’t want the coaching job in Dallas.

Baltimore -3.5 @ Cleveland: RIGHT. Cleveland is such a fraud team. I knew Baltimore remembered the first time the two teams met this season and would make the necessary adjustments. The only surprise I had at the outcome of this game was the margin of victory wasn’t greater for the Ravens.

Detroit @ Miami -3.5: WRONG. So the Lions went on the road to play Florida teams in consecutive weeks and won both games when they haven’t won a game on the road in how long? I can’t believe anyone predicted that outcome. If they say they did then they are a witch. BURN THEM!

Houston -3 @ Denver: WRONG. I hate Tebow so much. I don’t have many mortal enemies, but I’m considering adding another entry to the list. Make some room Leno.

New York Giants +2.5 @ Green Bay: WRONG. So wrong. I was operating under the assumption Aaron Rodgers was either not going to play or was going to be limited at least in the play calls that were going to be made for him. Way wrong. I’m completely floored by the Giants defense getting manhandled like they did. I’m not feeling as good about the Giants against the spread and in the playoffs.

New Orleans +2.5 @ Atlanta: RIGHT. This seemed like a split series to me. I kind of these teams meet in the playoffs. OOOOOOHHHH the storylines are getting me wet already.

Cheerleader picture then the week 17 picks……

Despite what I wrote above I am salivating at the possibilities this week. Then I immediately correct myself and try to realize my anticipation should be a warning sign. I know one thing for sure. I’ve been burned so many times on this one mistake I am never making it again… that much. Don’t ever “believe” in a team that needs to win to get into the playoffs. Don’t believe in the fire in their belly. If they have to win in week 17 in order to get into the playoffs most likely they aren’t strong enough to get it done. Here’s this week’s minefield of picks.

Jacksonville @ Houston -3: The Jaguars will not have David Garrard this weekend, not that he’s Brett Favre or anything, but it is his team and he is serviceable about half the time. The big hit is the Jaguars will be without Maurice Jones-Drew this weekend in Houston. As far as Houston goes the season has been another huge disappointment for the Texans, but the consensus is Gary Kubiak will be back again next season with the defensive staff being fired and Wade Phillips being added as defensive coordinator next season. I actually love that idea. Of course it will begin anew the cycle of Wade Phillips being recognized as a great defensive coordinator and another owner foolishly thinking Wade would be a good head coach. NFL owners are not very good at learning from history. Even though most insiders think Kubiak is safe it probably wouldn’t hurt to win another division game.

Arizona +6 @ San Fransisco: I expect San Fran to disintegrate. I think enough players in Arizona are playing for jobs that they’ll have some fight in them for this game. I think they even have a few players that will play for pride. I think the San Fran players are going to be dazed from Singletary being fired. I think even though the Niners sucked this year a lot of players were really on his side.

Tennessee +9.5 @ Indianapolis:I think there’s at least a 70% chance the Colts win this game, but only about a 15% chance they beat the Titans by more than 9 points. A touchdown sure, but not 10 points. A division game still means something and I expect the Titans to play bitter and beat up the Colts to soften them up for the playoffs. I expect a few fights in this game.

Minnesota +3 @ Detroit: This is a gamble game. I think Shaun Hill is going to play this week so Detroit at home has a good chance of winning. Minnesota played very hard last week. I think the players want to see Coach Frazier take over permanently. Joe Webb has also been impressive enough for at least 3 points factored into handicapping. I wouldn’t bet this game unless you have some gamble in you.

34-31-3 in the picks this year. I’m trying to end the regular season on a high note, though. I will pick each playoff game and maybe even some Super Bowl prop bets. That is, if you all want to continue to lose money.

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 16, Finishing Strong

Nonpopulist — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 21:01:13 +0000

This week’s highly anticipated Rubetastic will be abbreviated since I can only steal away so many moments at the in-laws place. Let’s look at the week 15 picks which brought my season total to 31-27-3.

Kansas City @ St. Louis +1: WRONG, I made this pick when I didn’t think Matt Cassell was going to start. Remember he was iffy all week after his surgery. I’m not saying I would have picked Kansas City had I known Cassell was playing. I am saying I wouldn’t have included it in the picks I recommended had I known he was going to play and be effective.

Arizona @ Carolina -2.5: RIGHT. Both teams such, but Carolina has shown a little bit more in my opinion recently plus ARI had to travel from west to east.

New Orleans @ Baltimore -1: RIGHT. I knew either team could win this game, and it would most likely be close. I gave the edge to Baltimore since New Orleans is a dome team and they were playing outdoors at Baltimore. That stuff means a couple of points during the colder months.

Detroit @ Tampa Bay -5.5: WRONG. Damn you Drew Stanton and damn you Tampa Bay. Why are you guys shitting the bed all of a sudden. You’ve had such a good season. I guess the Bucs’ heads are getting dizzy from being in the clouds. I’m staying away from Tampa Bay for the final two weeks of the season.

Philadelphia +3 @ New York Giants: RIGHT. I was confused by New York being favored in this game. I order to get equal action I had placed my line at PHI -2. I had an inkling Philly would win by at least a TD.

Denver @ Oakland -6.5: RIGHT. People are ready to drink the Tebow kool-aid and his jizz along with it. I was talking to a friend that has Tebow blinders on and I told him NFL defensive coordinators will have Tebow figured out all of next year off of these last 3 games of the season.

Chicago -3.5 @ Minnesota: RIGHT. Again I gave Chicago a few points since this game was to be played outdoors and because at the time we all thought Joe Webb was going to start. I didn’t panic when it was learned Favre was going to start. I got the CHI -3.5 from the ESPN pick ‘em game, but I saw the line on the day of the game at CHI -8. I would have still bet Chicago there even with Favre playing. I thought it was very likely he wouldn’t finish the game to the point I didn’t even take Joe Webb out of the lineup for a fantasy football playoff game and replace him with Aromoshadu or Hester even though I had plenty of time to do so.
Cheerleader time.

Quick and dirty this week.

New York Jets @ Chicago -1: I like Chicago this week as Mark Sanchez is hurt and possibly not playing.

Dallas -7 @ Arizona: Arizona is bad and Dallas needs to finish strong so that both coaches and players will have jobs next year.

Baltimore -3.5 @ Cleveland: Am I the only one who realized Cleveland is a sham team about 7 weeks ago? I like Baltimore big this weekend.

Detroit @ Miami -3.5: Detroit has to go back to Florida for a game in consecutive weeks, this time even deeper into America’s wang. Never mind Detroit’s win last week being their first road win in a while, Detroit even won their first division game in several years against Green Bay a few weeks ago. THE CITY’S SAVED! They’re going to go undefeated for 10 years! *Makes fart noise with armpit. This line is too low. I thought I was being overly cautious when I set my line at Miami -5.

Houston -3 @ Denver: I don’t know how much more vehement I can be. I do not like Tim Tebow as a football player. I think I may be letting it blind me. Schaub just throw it to Andre Johnson or dump it off to Arian Foster. Only use your brick-handed tight ends to look off safeties and linebackers. That is your key to success.

New York Giants +2.5 @ Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers has been cleared to play this week, but can Green Bay run the ball well enough to ensure Rodgers safety from the Giants’ pass rush? I’m betting no.

New Orleans +2.5 @ Atlanta: The game of the week as far as I’m concerned.

But hey, what do I know? I’m 31-27-3 on the year.

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 15, At Least We Have Cheerleaders

Nonpopulist — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 17:36:28 +0000

Last week I decided to pick a bigger selection of games against the spread. Let’s see how that worked out. I’ll give you a hint, about zero sum. Let’s look back on the week of picks that has brought me to 26-25-3. A season that began with so much promise has been dashed without remorse. At least we have cheerleaders to look at it.

Cleveland @ Buffalo -1: RIGHT. Buffalo at home, playing teams tough all season, and showing they can put up some offense and Cleveland being exposed recently and starting Delhomme again- easy bet.

Cincinatti -8.5 @ Pittsburgh: WRONG. I thought with Big Ben struggling through some serious injuries the Bengals might have enough of a bump to keep it close. Apparently not.

Tampa Bay -2 @ Washington: WRONG. I’m not saying this game was fixed, but the Redskins bobbled an extra point at the end of the game that would have sent the game into overtime. HMMMMMMMMMM>>>>>………….>>>…..

St. Louis +9 @ New Orleans: WRONG. I think people, including me, have been sleeping on the Saints this season because they lost some games early and haven’t been winning in the spectacular fashion to which we have grown accustomed. They are a quiet 10-3. I focused on the the Rams and thinking they had a scrapper’s chance in this matchup.

Seattle +5.5 @ San Fransisco: WRONG. Neither of these teams is for real, but Seattle has been doing okay against mediocre teams this year. I did not think San Fransisco had the ability to put up 40 points, but I guess Alex Smith is trying not to suck. That’s probably good for his career.

Denver @ Arizona +5.5: RIGHT. I had a very good feeling this would be the exception to the rule of interim head coaches winning their first games this season because there’s a bit more of a mess than Jason Garrett inherited in Dallas and Leslie Frazier inherited in Minnesota. I think Josh McDaniels ripped the crown molding off the walls and the electrical outlets out of the walls on the way out of Denver.

Kansas City @ San Diego -6.5: RIGHT. The only line I really saw for this game was San Diego -6.5 which was way too low. I had my line at San Diego -9. On the road and without Cassell I’m not at all surprised the Chiefs weren’t able to score.

Philadelphia -3.5 @ Dallas: WRONG. A freaking half point. Love it.
Now a cheerleader and let’s look at next week.

There are some interesting lines on games this week. I feel good about these picks for whatever that’s worth.

Chicago -3.5 @ Minnesota: This line isn’t on the board at most sportsbooks right now. I pulled this off of the ESPN Pigskin Pick ‘em contest, but this is another bet the mortgage scenario. The reason this game isn’t on the board is because the Vikings are not sure what they are going to be doing at quarterback for the game. I think there’s a chance Favre goes, but the team has placed Tavaris Jackson on IR and signed Patrick Ramsey. Joe Webb is also a possibility. Also the location of this game is in question with the Vikings stadium still not ready after the roof collapse. There is a strong possibility this game will be played outside. That favors the Bears. Take this game to the back.

Kansas City @ St. Louis +1: St Louis is at home (where they have won the majority of their games this season), and Matt Cassell may be back at QB for the Chiefs but he will not be 100%. I would pick the Rams if Cassell hadn’t just had surgery.

Denver @ Oakland -6.5: Denver is not going to beat Oakland at home. Oakland had a tough road loss last week after they were GASHED in the running game. Good thing Denver doesn’t have nearly as good of a running game and they don’t have to make the dreaded west to east coast trip.

Arizona @ Carolina -2.5: I’m not in love with this pick, but the two worst teams in the NFL right now is a matchup I just have to pick. Arizona does have to travel from west to east and Carolina has shown more to me recently despite the Cardinals beating the Broncos last week. I think it’ll be a low scoring game too.

New Orleans @ Baltimore -1: I get this line. I understand it. I really do. New Orleans is playing well, and Baltimore has a feeling around them that the games they have lost have been against the elite teams and many of the games could have gone either way. This line is really smart. It’s much more complex than I really feel like going into since no one reads this shit anyway, but this is a fascinating line. I like Baltimore in a game in which the lead will change a few times.

Detroit @ Tampa Bay -5.5: Drew Stanton had a good week two weeks ago which shocked the hell out of me. Last week we saw it was probably a fluke. The Lions can’t win on the road. I just don’t buy it. Tampa Bay lost against the spread last week, but this week I think they’ve got it.

Philadelphia +3 @ New York Giants: I think the Eagles can stop the run. They will be able to key on it a little better since the Giants receiving corp has so many injuries. I think this game will be close, but the Eagles will win outright.

26-25-3. I hang my head in shame.

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 14, in the Hole Again and Not the Good Kind

Nonpopulist — Thu, 09 Dec 2010 23:42:21 +0000

I know not many people read this. I see the blog statistics and everything, but I care about this as a matter of pride. Last week’s performance 1-3 on picks against the spread is simply appalling. I’m ashamed. I plan to unleash hell on this week’s picks, but not in the same sort of sucky way Mike Tomlin meant last year. Let’s look at my screw ups and laugh. We can laugh about it, right guys? I’m now 23-20-3 on the season. Ouch.

Cleveland @ Miami -5: WRONG. I thought Miami had somewhat rallied after going on the road and beating a much-improved Oakland Raiders team. Miami’s inconsistency this season should have signaled me to stay away from picking this game. Cleveland’s not any better. Some people actually think this is a good team. They have had some great upsets, though.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee -3: WRONG. O, Tennessee decided to not play against a division rival. Time to consider betting against Tennessee every week. I don’t care what people say. Most of the players on this team have quit, and I say that being a Titans fan.

St. Louis -3.5 @ Arizona: RIGHT. I had the feeling Arizona was a good bet after how horrible they have been playing. Still this was only St. Louis’ second road win of the season.

Bonus game- Chicago -5 @ Detroit: WRONG. I hate being wrong by one point as much as the Westboro Baptist Church fags hate… fags. I guess the lesson here is Detroit should be respected against the spread. I guess.
Let’s take a look at a cheerleader and then this week’s picks.

This week I am either going to completely redeem myself or dig myself deeper in the hole. I have my lines set very similar to what Vegas has on most games this week. I only have different teams favored than Vegas on two games. I like my games for inducing equal action as well as Vegas’ (that is the point of betting lines, after all), but seeing the Vegas lines makes me want to pick those games. Here goes. I’m picking more games than usual this week to try to get back on the winning track. This might not end well.

Cleveland @ Buffalo -1: Now that Buffalo has the monkey of having not won a game off of their back I like them to pick up a couple of more wins this season. This is the perfect game to pick up another win. Cleveland is having to travel a good distance in back to back weeks and Buffalo does have a decent home advantage. Despite losing games Buffalo has been able to put up a good amount of points in some games. I also like Jake Delhomme to wake from the dream state he played in last week and remember he’s Jake Delhomme and throw a few picks to Buffalo. I had the same line as Vegas on this game.

Cincinatti -8.5 @ Pittsburgh: I would like this game even more the higher the line gets favoring Pittsburgh. The Bengals will most likely not win the game, but they are desperate and still have talent on the team. If Cincy can get the medium passing game and screen passes going I think they can work on a Pittsburgh defense that will want to blitz Carson Palmer. The Steelers are probably still sore from last Sunday night’s tough game against the Ravens.

Tampa Bay -2 @ Washington: The Bucs lost a tough game at home last week against Atlanta, but if they can hang with Atlanta they should be able to beat the Redskins by more than 2 points.

St. Louis +9 @ New Orleans: The bottom line is New Orleans is not the behemoth they were last season. The Saints will still likely win this game, but St. Louis can keep this game closer than 9 points. The Saints may have Pierre Thomas back this week, but I think him and Reggie Bush are more a frustration than a help at this point. Ivory and Julius Jones seem more capable than guys coming off of medium-term injuries.

Seattle +5.5 @ San Fransisco: I seem to have been doing well this year with the NFC West. I am convinced Seattle will win this game outright. San Fransisco is going back to Alex Smith at quarterback so Smith will have a chip on his shoulder and try even harded to force those interceptions in there. This is one of the lines where Vegas and I differed on the favorite. I had Seattle favored.

Denver @ Arizona +5.5: O, so just because Dallas and Minnesota made head coaching changes and had instant success you think that will happen this week as Denver’s running backs’ coach takes over as interim head coach? Not bloody likely. This game is for gamblers, though. I would put a less than average amount on this game. This is the other game where Vegas and I differed. I’ve been doing ok in the NFC West this year.

Kansas City @ San Diego -6.5: This game wasn’t on the board at Sportsbook.com where I normally pull the Vegas lines from since KC QB Matt Cassell is most likely not playing. I had my line at San Diego -9 so if you can find San Diego -6.5 I would be all over it. That would be a “bet the mortgage” type of situation. I got the 6.5 number from ESPN’s pick ‘em contest.

Philadelphia -3.5 @ Dallas: I can just see Michael Vick carving up Dallas’ secondary on 20 yard in routes. This game will be ugly. Dallas does not have the people to stop Vick. Dallas will miss Dez Bryant even though he has been quiet in games before being put on injured reserve. He has been quiet because opposing defenses have been keying on him a little more. Have you noticed how Dallas has been running the ball a little bit better? Defenses have been having to account for 2.5 receivers plus Jason Witten. (I only count Roy Williams as a half of a guy.)

Here’s hoping for an improvement on 23-20-3. That’s pretty bad.

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 13, Buxom Edition

Nonpopulist — Sat, 04 Dec 2010 19:41:47 +0000

I’m later than a hooker that lets you go raw dog’s period this week so I’ll keep it short. Last week sucked. I only got one game correct. So I was 1-2 last week bringing this season’s total to 22-17-3. All I can say about that is it is better than a losing record. My head is well above water for the season. Let’s look back at last week.

New Orleans -3.5 @ Dallas: WRONG. My thinking here was Dallas is a team that just went through a huge transition to a first-time head coach and if there would be an optimum time to falter it would be on a short week. I was right about them faltering, but wrong on the spread by a half point. That is one of the worst feelings as a bettor, to be wrong by half a point.

Green Bay +2 @ Atlanta: WRONG. I thought Green Bay would win outright. Obviously we all saw what happened in the game. If the Falcons can get consistent they have a chance to be a contender in the playoffs this year. I have been impressed with the team, but they have faltered at times. Matt Ryan is maturing at an exponential rate.

San Fransisco -1 @ Arizona: RIGHT. I was very confused by this line and remain so. As much as Arizona is in disarray right now I am tempted to take the other team against the spread the rest of the season. They’ll get another win, though. If they have any division games left look for them to try to be a spoiler and probably succeed. San Fransisco is playing better, but they are still a middle of the pack team.
Let’s look at a cheerleader and then this week’s picks against the spread.

This week has some interesting matchups in which I think the quarterback playing or not playing will make the difference.

Cleveland @ Miami -5: Jake Delhomme is starting this week. Aaawww, peaches! (That’s what I hypothesize Jake exclaims after he throws each interception in his attempt to break the all-time interceptions thrown record.) Miami at home by at least a touchdown. No brainer. I would bet an above average amount on this game if betting were legal where I live.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee -3: Hear me out on this one. Kerry Collins is not a bad quarterback. He is about 3rd or 4th on the all-time passing yard list among active players. He makes the difference for the Titans this week. Tennessee is at home in a playoff race against a team they have already beaten badly at their home stadium this week. Fisher historically owns the Jaguars. I am a fan of the Titans so I can’t advise betting above your standard bet, but if I were betting I would double what I normally bet and pick out a prostitute for later. Moss will get the ball in this game and Chris Johnson will have at least a touchdown and 85 yards rushing. Am I getting too bold with my predictions? Probably.

St. Louis -3.5 @ Arizona: Remember what I said about possibly betting against Arizona the rest of the season. When I saw this line it became obvious to me Vegas is thinking the same thing. This line seems golden on the surface, but you have to go a bit deeper on this line. Remember Vegas is playing chess not checkers. The Rams won for the first time on the road last week. That is a big deal for this team. To have to go on the road out west for a second consecutive week and try to win again is difficult for most teams, but we are talking about the Cardinals team that is likely frustrated and looking to play with at least some pride this week. The problem is Derek Anderson is most definitely not the same Derek Anderson who made the Pro Bowl a few years ago. The Cardinals will play a little better this week but for this team that means maybe a field goal or at best a touchdown.

Bonus game- Chicago -5 @ Detroit: Drew Stanton is starting this week. The Bears defense has been impressive in almost every game this season. If they can slow down Michael Vick like they did last week the Beard defense can send Drew Stanton back in time. As far as the Chicago offense they are the type of offensive units who thrive against bad defenses. As long as the Bears offensive line can stop Suh, Vanden Bosch, and whoever else rushes for the Lions this will be a good week for Martz, Cutler, and especially Forte. Book it.