Sports, Satire and Bad Jokes
Monday December 20th 2010

‘Rubetastic’ Archive

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog Weekly NFL Betting Guide: Week 5- Getting Stronger

This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.

The slate of week 5 NFL action has some interesting matchups from a handicapping perspective. As I have tried to make clear in these posts I make my own lines before I look at what Vegas has, and this week I was a bit pensive as I was updating my excel spreadsheet titled “NFL Betting Lines 2010.” My usual routine is to set my own lines during Monday Night Football, and as I settled in to handicap this week’s games (with a crowbar) I noticed some games I did not have a good read on, or so I thought. Fast forward past the two times I updated my lines for the Randy Moss trade and news that Jay Cutler was not going to be playing this week against Carolina and we come to when I usually look at where the Las Vegas lines are set (via Sportsbook.com) on Thursdays to find my jaw dropped at how close my lines are to Vegas. Here’s a comparison. (more…)

Popularity: 2% [?]

Share

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog Weekly NFL Betting Guide: Week 4- In the Hole (That’s What She Said)

This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. As previously posted, I have been making my own NFL lines for around 5 years, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet. (more…)

Popularity: 2% [?]

Share

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog Weekly NFL Betting Guide: Week 3- Taking Shape

This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. As previously posted, I have been making my own NFL lines for around 5 years, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.

Week 3 is when things in the NFL begin to take shape for me. This is the first week I usually handicap the games on my own without looking at Vegas’ lines first. After I do that I look at any gaps in point spreads and try to analyze why there is a gap, in other words where I am missing the boat. I did not get to making power rankings like I mentioned in last week’s Rubetastic post. I plan to mess around with excel this weekend and make a basic power ranking that will include only 3rd down conversion percentage and turnover differential. It will not be used as an absolute but merely as a consulting tool. Let’s look at how I ripped sh1t up last week. If you bet with me (Nonpopulist) and The Gally Blog you would have gone 2-0-1. That’s two wins, no losses, and one push where no money would have changed hands. Over the first two weeks of the season I am 3-1-2 Let’s recap.

(Win) Jaguars @ Charger -7 – I advised heavy betting on the Chargers as a team looking to bounce back. I advise heavy petting on any ladies who will allow you between the ages of 18- 26. More on the theory of teams “bouncing back” in a moment. I had an interesting thought about a trap I think newb bettors fall into with the bounce back.

(Win) Chiefs +2 @ Browns – As I predicted the Chiefs won outright. Not sure what Vegas was thinking on this one. The only thing I can imagine coming into play is the handicappers knowing early on Delhomme was going to sit and Seneca Wallace was going to get the start at quarterback. I floated that theory last Friday, but as I said then Wallace just does not move the needle that much. I have a feeling Vegas lost big on this one. Coming off of the Monday night win the average fan had to have been betting the Chiefs hard.

(Push) Texans -3 @ Redskins – As I wrote last week this was my least favorite bet. I thought the line play of the Texans would make enough of a difference to help the Texans beat a measly 3 point spread. Wrong. I wish I could have seen more of this game to see what the Redskins did to keep it close.

2-0-1 for a week is not bad. I would take that every week if I could. Also, I wrote a little indecisively about betting on the Jets after I had initially said I wouldn’t want to touch the Pats-Jets match-up with a ten foot pole. I sort of talked myself into it as I was writing, but I chose not to put that game in place of the Texans-Redskins game because I’ve just been lezzing out a lot lately. Now an NFL cheerleader picture from week 2 and on to this week.

Something I noticed myself falling into when I was initially looking at Vegas’ lines last week was an old habit I had when I was new to betting. I made this up as far as I know. I call it the “bounce back principle.” This rule is not always bad, though. There is one huge exception. The bounce back principle is liking a team to win or at least giving a team a few points in your head because they are coming off of a loss with of a larger than expected margin. It could also include a team losing by a close margin when they were expected to win big. Here’s an example of the latter. The Cowboys lost a close game against the Redskins week 1. The game was close, and the Cowboys lost because they basically blew two shotgun barrels at their own feet. So you see that and you say to yourself, “Man, I freaking love the Cowboys to ‘bounce back’ this week.” Um, no. In the Cowboys’ case there’s something seriously wrong with the team. They are not good. They are not bouncing back from anything. They are an underdog now. That may be hard for the casual fan to turn right around and consider the Cowboys a dog, but handicappers are ruthless. Constant evaluation is necessary. The same would go with a team that gets blown out one week but is not really a horrible team. You look for them to bounce back. I think in most cases a team that you or a commentator thinks will “bounce back” has underlying problems that can only be fixed over time and should be factored into your betting/ handicapping.

I’m not saying that no team bounces back. On the contrary, some teams have a high probability to bounce back. This is the key point that will probably make you some money over time. GOOD teams bounce back. I mean really good teams, good teams that are currently and recently good. Teams that just have a really good quarterback or coach or middle linebacker do not bounce back. Teams that have demonstrated patterns of knowing how to win games bounce back. I don’t memorize many statistics, but remember a few years ago the Patriots had that string of  a few years that they didn’t lose two games in a row. It was a long streak. At that time the Patriots were still the fawkin Pats and not a sad shell like they are now. Teams like the Colts bounce back. I actually picked a bounce back game last week and it won. The Chargers lost to the Chiefs in week 1 on MNF, but I loved them to beat the Jaguars for a few reasons I detailed in last week’s Rubetastic post. Say what you will, but the Chargers have demonstrated being able to win as consistently as most of the other current top dog teams. On Monday night they had to play in Kansas City in the rain (It doesn’t rain that much in San Diego) and toward the end of the game the Chargers had appeared to work out some kinks and seemed as though they only needed more time in order to win the game. So be careful of betting on “bounce backs” unless they have a track record.

Overall this week’s lines are interesting. It seems as though they are trying to bait us into betting for the favorites to beat the spread. I went in trying to avoid those games. Here’s the picks.

Falcons @ Saints -4: They have the Saints favored by only four points. Really? I had my line at 6 so I guess I don’t know much better. Reggie Bush is not nearly as important as he has been made out to be with this offense. Speaking of making out that Kardashian kunt sure does like only black guys. Good for her. Saints will likely win by more than 4 points as long as they focus on stopping the run.

Green Bay -3 @ Chicago: Green Bay will win this game by greater than three points. I had  my line set at Green Bay -7.5. Do not buy the Cutler/ Martz hype right now. You would be foolish to do so.

Jets +2 @ Dolphins: Trust me on this one. Just like I wrote last week people are jumping off the Jets/ Rex Ryan way faster than they actually got on the bandwagon. I am going to tend to like the Jets against the spread for the rest of this year probably. Well, until the playoffs at least. As 2 point underdogs I need to take the Jets even on the road like they are in Miami this week.

Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.

Popularity: 2% [?]

Share

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog Weekly NFL Betting Guide: Week 2

Get ready for week 2 of the NFL season, fetus faces! This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. As previously posted, I have been making my own NFL lines for around 5 years, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.

With all that being said, let’s review last week’s picks. O wait, do we have to? Yes, because sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint, and I want to be accountable for my picks over the long-term since I know there will be bad weeks. Other caveats include me telling you how I dislike week 1 betting. I don’t even make my own lines. I didn’t make my own lines this week either. I plan on starting with the week 3 NFL games. I need to see more. I also have an idea that I am beginning to work on. I’m going to do an NFL power ranking (yes, groan, I know many dislike these, but mine will be useful) using only 2 stats (so far)- 3rd down conversion success rate and turnover differential. Those are the two most important football team stats in my mind. If I am having trouble deciding an outright winner for a game I will often consult those two statistics. Look for that coming up next week.

Looking back at last week I went 1-1-1. One bet would have won, one would have pushed (the betting line was the actual scoring differential outcome), and one bet would have lost. The one winning bet was one I said I would have put an above average bet on so I still would have come out ahead for the week if I had bet those lines.

Lions @ Bears -6: This was a winning bet since the Lions only lost by 5 and the Bears were favored to win by 6. I actually thought the Lions were going to win outright. Many  contend they should have because of the catch controversy at the end of the game.

Browns @ Buccaneers -3: The Bucs won by 3, so that’s a push, no action. The Browns should have won that game. The Bucs QB Freeman played better than I thought he would. He did not seem slowed by his broken thumb at all. That factored greatly in my decision to advise betting on the Browns.

Broncos @ Jaguars -2.5: I didn’t catch a lot of this game, but I am still shocked the Jaguars beat the Broncos by a full touchdown. I still look forward to cashing in on Garrard’s inconsistency down the road this season.

Enough about last week. How about a sexy cheerleader picture and we move on to next week?

A redheaded Philly girl? Tell me that’s not sexy. Try to!

This week’s lines are pretty tight. I don’t see much wiggle room in these lines. Of course, this is Friday. Did you know that if betting is heavy enough on one team that oddsmakers will move the line to accommodate the betting. I have no idea what the record is, but I know I have seen the line move by several points from Monday to Friday. I think the Bills-Packers game is a trap. The Packers are at home and favored by 13 points. I think Vegas is trying to confuse us and induce betting on the underdog Bills. I think the Packers will probably beat that spread handily (win by more than 13 points), but Buffalo showed enough flashes last week I am hesitant to bet on Green Bay. I am staying away from betting this game because just when you think you have Vegas figured out they punch you in the gut. Tennessee is at home and favored by 5 points against the Steelers. In a surprise to me the Steelers actually won last week so they are tougher than I thought they would be without Roethlisberger.  Here’s another important rule I follow in betting.

Never bet on your favorite team.

Sure, I have way above average knowledge on my favorite team (The Titans), but I have learned the hard way to not bet on them. The emotional swings are tough when you bet big (which I have before), and your knowledge clouds your thinking. I don’t know if that’s a hard and fast rule that serious gamblers all live by, but I think it should be. The problem is, the casual fan will usually only bet their favorite team. This comes into play with the bigger fan bases like the Steelers, Patriots, and Cowboys. Those idiots make Vegas and their local bookies a lot of money each year. Here’s my picks:

Jaguars @ Chargers -7: To me the Chargers looked like a team who was unprepared for the Chief’s rookies (who would have been, no one’s seen them play in the NFL yet) and needed more time to win on Monday night. I expect the Chargers offense to be night and day better this week, and the team is at home. The Chargers will beat that 7 point spread.

Chiefs +2 @ Browns: Did Vegas see the same game I saw Monday night? You can attribute 3 points to the Chiefs each week based solely on the Chiefs return game. That’s a long return putting them in field goal position fairly easily or an out and out return touchdown. There is no way the Browns should be favored by two points in this game. The passing game for the Chiefs will be bad, but no worse than it would be at home. You can run the ball even with the crowd noise at Cleveland Brown Stadium. They’re all dead inside anyway. How much noise can they make? I like this line, but remember what I said earlier. Anytime you think you have something figured out is when Vegas punches you in the gut. With that said I think this is a situation where Vegas has some inside info about who will play QB Sunday for the Browns. If they are thinking Delhomme doesn’t go and Seneca Wallace gets the start I have a message for whoever set this line: crappy quarterbacks don’t usually get better with age.

Texans -3 @ Redskins: I’m not in love with this bet, and I didn’t pick because I’m ready to crown Arian Foster the king of life either. Two factors show me value in this bet. One, the Texans had stellar line play last week on both sides of the ball. Remember all those rushing yards and how many hits Peyton Manning had on him? Two, the Redskins beat a Cowboys team who played like it was a playoff game. The Cowboys beat themselves. I can’t remember when I saw a team who beat themselves as bad as the Cowboys beat themselves. The Redskins only beat them by 6 at home.

Two games I would not touch with a 10 foot pole this week: Patriots -3 @ Jets and Giants @ Colts -5. These matchups are too early in the season for me to get a read on. I will say I think the reasons the Jets lost to the Ravens on Monday night are primarily scheme related. I don’t think we’ll see the Jets get gamed like they did in that game again this season. These seem like trap games. Another betting tip: if you don’t like a game, don’t bet it. That seems super easy, but some people do parlays (sucker bets) or feel they have to have money on every game. That’s what 800 numbers are for. No one should need that much action after they get a taste of the breaks betting every game causes. That’s the way to the poor house quick. I think people new to betting fall into that trap. You are not better than Vegas at handicapping games ever. You see some value sometimes. A gambler finds value every week, not knows nothing is for sure. Also, I found it odd that at Sportsbook.com (where I get my lines from) that 90% of the action was on the Patriots. Hmmm… A lot of people swallowing every NFL commentator bailing on the Jets bandwagon faster than they got on it in the first place. If I was an individual who had a lot of gamble in me I would probably bet on the Jets.

Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.

Popularity: 1% [?]

Share

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 1 Danger

Welcome to week one of the NFL season, skid marks! This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I ended up not being able to come up with anything more clever than Rubetastic so the name will stick. As previously posted, I have been making my own NFL lines for around 5 years, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.

Quick aside: There is still a few hours to join the Gally Blog Pick ‘Em contest. Free for anyone to join, $25 prize. We have 16 players in the group already. Go HERE, NOW!

Now a cheerleader:

This is Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ cheerleader Leigh Killian. She was once on Late Night with Conan O’Brien and
has a great amount of rib cage showing.

Now the substance:

Weeks 1, 17, and 2 are the hardest NFL weeks in my opinion to handicap. I don’t attempt to make my own lines in these weeks except week 2. I will be using Sportsbook.com’s lines as a judge for this weekly post (personal preference.) Even though I feel the lines are hard to set for these three weeks does not mean there is not value to be found. On normal weeks I make my own lines, then I look at what Vegas has their lines at to see the discrepancies. After that I analyze the ones with big gaps compared to my lines.
Here are the lines that look attractive to me this week: (My picks in bold)

Lions @ Bears -6 – With the Bears favored by 6 I would place an above average size bet on the Lions. Too much up in the air for the Bears and I’m fairly certain the Lions will be making a positive albeit small step forward this year.

Browns @ Buccaneers -3 – This seems like a give up line by the oddsmakers to me. The standard line to start with for any NFL game is favoring the home team by 3 points. That’s the line they have up. Do you think the Browns and Bucs are completely equal after that? I didn’t think so, even with the Bucs at home I think the Browns will win outright in this game. And I HATE the Browns. Jake Delhomme is a bad quarterback, but he has more experience than the Freeman. The Browns running game and Josh Cribbs are the X factors that gives me a lot of confidence in the Browns for this game.

Broncos @ Jaguars -2.5 – Usually one should not place bets on teams traveling this far west to east for a game, but this early in the season I don’t think it will matter much. The Jaguars should not be favored in this game. I know Denver imploded during the second half of last season, but they will compete with San Diego this year for the AFC West division and have a winning record. Jacksonville will blow again this season unless they got a wizard on defense and a Pepsi machine on offense I didn’t hear about.

One trend I am all over this year is the Seattle Seahawks. If they are favored in a game which they inevitably will be I will most likely look to bet on the underdog. I do not believe in what the Seahawks are doing at all. I think they will falter against the spread- at least for a few weeks. Vegas has the capability of drinking the kool-aid once in a while, just not for very long.
Also, I actually like the Saints to beat the spread tonight in the season kickoff a lot. They are only favored by 5 points.

I will be giving away more tidbits I have learned about NFL betting in small increments. If something is unclear or you have any questions use the comments. I will do my best to answer anything, even questions you may think are dumb with little to no judgment. I will also take requests on what you want to know. Let’s try to make this interactive, dick touches.


Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.

Popularity: 3% [?]

Share
 Page 2 of 2 « 1  2 

Latest Posts

I’m Burnin’ For You: BLOODSUGARSEXCANNON!!!!!!!

(via KSK) Hey, I said next week’s upcoming holiday blowout massacre Cockburn-a-palooza was going to be epic. And [Read More]

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 15, At Least We Have Cheerleaders

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 15, At Least We Have Cheerleaders

This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own [Read More]

I’m Burnin’ For You: Old King Clancy Watches the Skins-Bucs Game

I’m Burnin’ For You: Old King Clancy Watches the Skins-Bucs Game

Just wait. I’m saving the big fucking guns for next week’s holiday blowout massacre extravaganza. [Read More]

Last Call: The Sharkgina Edition

Last Call: The Sharkgina Edition

img via. From The Ashes Last Call is what it is. Y’all know the drill. If you need a refresher, it’s a [Read More]

Logic is interviewed on the NFL Season

Logic is interviewed on the NFL Season

Host: Welcome! Welcome one and all. We haven’t had an interview with our pseudo-celebrity guest, [Read More]

Recent Comments

gally had this to say

dream big. anything can happen Read the post

Old King Clancy had this to say

Not a thing with either the edible kind or the kind that graces your posts. I suppose the latter is edible too, just Read the post

Logic had this to say

Yeah I bagged an all-american girl's lax star when i was in college..not only was she sexy but she had some Read the post

gally had this to say

What's wrong with Cheesecake? Read the post

Old King Clancy had this to say

I'm from a lacrosse-friendly state as well, Logic. I also covered it (women's) in college. They are not difficult to Read the post

Insider

Archives