The Super Bowl, or Two Canadians One Lombardi
In our continuing Super Bowl coverage I bring to you brilliant expert NFL analysis from an unlikely source. Two Canadians, Andrew Bucholtz and myself. Without further ado, here’s Andrew’s take.
In my mind, one of the keys to this year’s Super Bowl is going to be the running game. The Saints were one of the best rushing teams this year, finishing sixth in the regular-season in yards per game (131.6) and first in Football Outsiders’ efficiency metrics. They have a triple-threat lineup with the quick-but-powerful Pierre Thomas, the lightning-fast Reggie Bush and the bruising Mike Bell. Meanwhile, the Colts were last in yards per game (80.9) and 22nd according to Football Outsiders, but they found a lot of success rushing the ball in the AFC championship against the Jets’ great run defence. They didn’t get too far lining up in traditional run formations, but had terrific results rushing the ball when everyone was expecting a pass.
The Colts face a tough task trying to shut down the Saints’ rushing game. For one thing, New Orleans is so explosive in both the rushing and passing games that it’s tough to sell out to stop one or the other. For another, the Saints’ backs all have vastly diverse running styles, making it more difficult to draw up a plan to deal with all of them. However, the Colts do have one advantage; their linemen and linebackers are generally small and fast, which should make them a bit more effective at slowing down Thomas and Bush than the typical NFL defence.
For the Saints’ defence, they’ll have to be careful not to focus too much on just stopping the Colts’ passing game. That’s what the Jets did in the AFC championship game, and they got burned on some unexpected runs by Joseph Addai. They did better stopping Donald Brown, and part of the reason is Brown’s weakness as a pass-blocker (see this clip of Peyton Manning yelling “Goddamnit, Donald” after Brown missed a block against the Ravens in the divisional round ). Even though he might be a more talented runner then Addai, the play-call is usually a run when he checks in, which loses the element of surprise. By contrast, Addai isn’t a great power back, but he’s good at picking up blitzes and catching passes out of the backfield. The Saints will need to keep him contained if they hope to win.
In the end, there are always a multitude of different elements that go into any football game. Good execution on offence, defence and special teams is important, but so are the breaks such as big kick returns, missed field goals, improperly run routes, fumbles and interceptions. Still, I’d expect both teams’ rushing offences and defences to play a key role in today’s game. Whichever team does better on the ground will have a sizeable advantage, and may just come out on top. (more…)
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