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Thursday September 15th 2011

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Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 16, Finishing Strong

This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.

This week’s highly anticipated Rubetastic will be abbreviated since I can only steal away so many moments at the in-laws place. Let’s look at the week 15 picks which brought my season total to 31-27-3.

Kansas City @ St. Louis +1: WRONG, I made this pick when I didn’t think Matt Cassell was going to start. Remember he was iffy all week after his surgery. I’m not saying I would have picked Kansas City had I known Cassell was playing. I am saying I wouldn’t have included it in the picks I recommended had I known he was going to play and be effective.

Arizona @ Carolina -2.5: RIGHT. Both teams such, but Carolina has shown a little bit more in my opinion recently plus ARI had to travel from west to east.

New Orleans @ Baltimore -1: RIGHT. I knew either team could win this game, and it would most likely be close. I gave the edge to Baltimore since New Orleans is a dome team and they were playing outdoors at Baltimore. That stuff means a couple of points during the colder months.

Detroit @ Tampa Bay -5.5: WRONG. Damn you Drew Stanton and damn you Tampa Bay. Why are you guys shitting the bed all of  a sudden. You’ve had such a good season. I guess the Bucs’ heads are getting dizzy from being in the clouds. I’m staying away from Tampa Bay for the final two weeks of the season.

Philadelphia +3 @ New York Giants: RIGHT. I was confused by New York being favored in this game. I order to get equal action I had placed my line at PHI -2. I had an inkling Philly would win by at least a TD.

Denver @ Oakland -6.5: RIGHT. People are ready to drink the Tebow kool-aid and his jizz along with it. I was talking to a friend that has Tebow blinders on and I told him NFL defensive coordinators will have Tebow figured out all of next year off of these last 3 games of the season.

Chicago -3.5 @ Minnesota: RIGHT. Again I gave Chicago a few points since this game was to be played outdoors and because at the time we all thought Joe Webb was going to start. I didn’t panic when it was learned Favre was going to start. I got the CHI -3.5 from the ESPN pick ‘em game, but I saw the line on the day of the game at CHI -8. I would have still bet Chicago there even with Favre playing. I thought it was very likely he wouldn’t finish the game to the point I didn’t even take Joe Webb out of the lineup for a fantasy football playoff game and replace him with Aromoshadu or Hester even though I had plenty of time to do so.
Cheerleader time.

Quick and dirty this week.

New York Jets @ Chicago -1: I like Chicago this week as Mark Sanchez is hurt and possibly not playing.

Dallas -7 @ Arizona: Arizona is bad and Dallas needs to finish strong so that both coaches and players will have jobs next year.

Baltimore -3.5 @ Cleveland: Am I the only one who realized Cleveland is a sham team about 7 weeks ago? I like Baltimore big this weekend.

Detroit @ Miami -3.5: Detroit has to go back to Florida for a game in consecutive weeks, this time even deeper into America’s wang. Never mind Detroit’s win last week being their first road win in a while, Detroit even won their first division game in several years against Green Bay a few weeks ago. THE CITY’S SAVED! They’re going to go undefeated for 10 years! *Makes fart noise with armpit. This line is too low. I thought I was being overly cautious when I set my line at Miami -5.

Houston -3 @ Denver: I don’t know how much more vehement I can be. I do not like Tim Tebow as a football player. I think I may be letting it blind me. Schaub just throw it to Andre Johnson or dump it off to Arian Foster. Only use your brick-handed tight ends to look off safeties and linebackers. That is your key to success.

New York Giants +2.5 @ Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers has been cleared to play this week, but can Green Bay run the ball well enough to ensure Rodgers safety from the Giants’ pass rush? I’m betting no.

New Orleans +2.5 @ Atlanta: The game of the week as far as I’m concerned.

But hey, what do I know? I’m 31-27-3 on the year.

Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.

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