Sports, Satire and Bad Jokes
Thursday December 22nd 2011

Posts Tagged ‘betting’

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 13, Buxom Edition

This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.

I’m later than a hooker that lets you go raw dog’s period this week so I’ll keep it short. Last week sucked. I only got one game correct. So I was 1-2 last week bringing this season’s total to 22-17-3. All I can say about that is it is better than a losing record. My head is well above water for the season. Let’s look back at last week.

New Orleans -3.5 @ Dallas: WRONG. My thinking here was Dallas is a team that just went through a huge transition to a first-time head coach and if there would be an optimum time to falter it would be on a short week. I was right about them faltering, but wrong on the spread by a half point. That is one of the worst feelings as a bettor, to be wrong by half a point.

Green Bay +2 @ Atlanta: WRONG. I thought Green Bay would win outright. Obviously we all saw what happened in the game. If the Falcons can get consistent they have a chance to be a contender in the playoffs this year. I have been impressed with the team, but they have faltered at times. Matt Ryan is maturing at an exponential rate.

San Fransisco -1 @ Arizona: RIGHT. I was very confused by this line and remain so. As much as Arizona is in disarray right now I am tempted to take the other team against the spread the rest of the season. They’ll get another win, though. If they have any division games left look for them to try to be a spoiler and probably succeed. San Fransisco is playing better, but they are still a middle of the pack team.
Let’s look at a cheerleader and then this week’s picks against the spread.

This week has some interesting matchups in which I think the quarterback playing or not playing will make the difference.

Cleveland @ Miami -5: Jake Delhomme is starting this week. Aaawww, peaches! (That’s what I hypothesize Jake exclaims after he throws each interception in his attempt to break the all-time interceptions thrown record.) Miami at home by at least a touchdown. No brainer. I would bet an above average amount on this game if betting were legal where I live.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee -3: Hear me out on this one. Kerry Collins is not a bad quarterback. He is about 3rd or 4th on the all-time passing yard list among active players. He makes the difference for the Titans this week. Tennessee is at home in a playoff race against a team they have already beaten badly at their home stadium this week. Fisher historically owns the Jaguars. I am a fan of the Titans so I can’t advise betting above your standard bet, but if I were betting I would double what I normally bet and pick out a prostitute for later. Moss will get the ball in this game and Chris Johnson will have at least a touchdown and 85 yards rushing. Am I getting too bold with my predictions? Probably.

St. Louis -3.5 @ Arizona: Remember what I said about possibly betting against Arizona the rest of the season. When I saw this line it became obvious to me Vegas is thinking the same thing. This line seems golden on the surface, but you have to go a bit deeper on this line. Remember Vegas is playing chess not checkers. The Rams won for the first time on the road last week. That is a big deal for this team. To have to go on the road out west for a second consecutive week and try to win again is difficult for most teams, but we are talking about the Cardinals team that is likely frustrated and looking to play with at least some pride this week. The problem is Derek Anderson is most definitely not the same Derek Anderson who made the Pro Bowl a few years ago. The Cardinals will play a little better this week but for this team that means maybe a field goal or at best a touchdown.

Bonus game- Chicago -5 @ Detroit: Drew Stanton is starting this week. The Bears defense has been impressive in almost every game this season. If they can slow down Michael Vick like they did last week the Beard defense can send Drew Stanton back in time. As far as the Chicago offense they are the type of offensive units who thrive against bad defenses. As long as the Bears offensive line can stop Suh, Vanden Bosch, and whoever else rushes  for the Lions this will be a good week for Martz, Cutler, and especially Forte. Book it.

Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.


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Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 1 Danger

Welcome to week one of the NFL season, skid marks! This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I ended up not being able to come up with anything more clever than Rubetastic so the name will stick. As previously posted, I have been making my own NFL lines for around 5 years, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.

Quick aside: There is still a few hours to join the Gally Blog Pick ‘Em contest. Free for anyone to join, $25 prize. We have 16 players in the group already. Go HERE, NOW!

Now a cheerleader:

This is Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ cheerleader Leigh Killian. She was once on Late Night with Conan O’Brien and
has a great amount of rib cage showing.

Now the substance:

Weeks 1, 17, and 2 are the hardest NFL weeks in my opinion to handicap. I don’t attempt to make my own lines in these weeks except week 2. I will be using Sportsbook.com’s lines as a judge for this weekly post (personal preference.) Even though I feel the lines are hard to set for these three weeks does not mean there is not value to be found. On normal weeks I make my own lines, then I look at what Vegas has their lines at to see the discrepancies. After that I analyze the ones with big gaps compared to my lines.
Here are the lines that look attractive to me this week: (My picks in bold)

Lions @ Bears -6 – With the Bears favored by 6 I would place an above average size bet on the Lions. Too much up in the air for the Bears and I’m fairly certain the Lions will be making a positive albeit small step forward this year.

Browns @ Buccaneers -3 – This seems like a give up line by the oddsmakers to me. The standard line to start with for any NFL game is favoring the home team by 3 points. That’s the line they have up. Do you think the Browns and Bucs are completely equal after that? I didn’t think so, even with the Bucs at home I think the Browns will win outright in this game. And I HATE the Browns. Jake Delhomme is a bad quarterback, but he has more experience than the Freeman. The Browns running game and Josh Cribbs are the X factors that gives me a lot of confidence in the Browns for this game.

Broncos @ Jaguars -2.5 – Usually one should not place bets on teams traveling this far west to east for a game, but this early in the season I don’t think it will matter much. The Jaguars should not be favored in this game. I know Denver imploded during the second half of last season, but they will compete with San Diego this year for the AFC West division and have a winning record. Jacksonville will blow again this season unless they got a wizard on defense and a Pepsi machine on offense I didn’t hear about.

One trend I am all over this year is the Seattle Seahawks. If they are favored in a game which they inevitably will be I will most likely look to bet on the underdog. I do not believe in what the Seahawks are doing at all. I think they will falter against the spread- at least for a few weeks. Vegas has the capability of drinking the kool-aid once in a while, just not for very long.
Also, I actually like the Saints to beat the spread tonight in the season kickoff a lot. They are only favored by 5 points.

I will be giving away more tidbits I have learned about NFL betting in small increments. If something is unclear or you have any questions use the comments. I will do my best to answer anything, even questions you may think are dumb with little to no judgment. I will also take requests on what you want to know. Let’s try to make this interactive, dick touches.


Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.

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The Gally Blog Pigskin Pick ‘Em Contest- $25 Prize

“Come for the gift card, stay for the rape.”

Gally Blog denizens and people who heard about the $25 and came-a-clicking,

The NFL season is set to begin on September 9th, only a few days away. The only thing that can make the best sport in the world even better is being able to win money off of football betting and brag to your friends how you know more about the NFL than them or the bookies. The Gally Blog Pigskin ‘Em Contest is just such a sensual combination. The winner of the contest will receive a $25 Visa gift card as a prize. Tell your friends. All are welcome.

Here’s the breakdown:

  • We will use the ESPN Pigskin Pick ‘Em Engine, the group is here.
  • The picks will be made against the spread, not straight-up winners since that’s for pussies.
  • Entries are locked meaning you may only enter/ leave the group before the season begins on Sept. 9th. This is done to prevent shenanigans.
  • At the end of the season the winner of our group will be mailed a $25 Visa gift card that I will buy. If I win I will not buy a gift card.

In addition to this contest I will also be writing a weekly post revolving around NFL betting called “Rubetastic” or something else if I can think of something better. I have been making my own NFL lines for around 5 years, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet. I do all my betting offline with a guy I call Jimmy Bags (like the character in The Departed.) He lets me call him that, actually. I choose to forget his real name. Also, he will talk in a 1920′s gangster voice if I ask. It’s the personalized customer service of Jimmy Bags that keeps me coming back.

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