Author: Nonpopulist Published: November 19th, 2010
This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.
I’ve been kicking myself for not going with my instincts on the DAL @ NYG game. Read last week’s post to know what I mean about that (spoiler alert: I almost talked myself into picking that upset.) If I had a way to legally bet I would have bet that game. I would have put a smaller bet on it, but I definitely would have put something on it. The line was too big. Either way I was 3-1 in my picks I publish here last week bringing my season record to 19-13-3. I busted that little slump I was having about like I busted your sister’s cherry. Let’s review last week’s picks.
New York Jets -3 @ Cleveland: RIGHT. The reason I was right on this despite many people starting to think the Browns were some sort of “giant-killer” that was going to run over the league behind Peyton “The Dump Truck” Hillis is because I remembered they were the fucking Browns. People are going to be ready for the Browns from here on out. Hillis is a white running back. Do I need to put smelling salts in your face? O, and Josh Cribbs is an awesome player, but what’s up with his blackcent? It’s near Tyson level.
Houston +1.5 @ Jacksonville: WRONG. Sure it ended on a fluke play, but I think what I learned here is despite the strides the Texans have made and the close games they won earlier in the year they still don’t know how to win on a consistent basis. There’s a certain mentality teams get, a certain way they carry themselves, and a certain way they go out an beat teams they should beat. I’m reminded of one of the two Denver Bronco teams that won the Super Bowl. I can’t remember which, and I’m not going to take the time to look it up because I’m already going to have this up later than I want. A lot of people like to play Contender or Pretender. Well, the Texans are a pretender. That’s still better than the Jaguars. They’re fucking holograms.
Seattle +3 @ Arizona: RIGHT. Don’t worry, Vegas. I got the joke you were trying to make with this line. A team with no starting quarterback getting the standard 3 points every home team in the NFL starts with when you begin handicapping games. Funny stuff, guys. Seattle is no juggernaut, but they are dick and balls above the Cardinals even on the road.
Kansas City @ Denver +1: RIGHT. People often forget Denver is a different team at home. Mile high, mountain air, John Denver? Any of this ringing a bell? Shit, if Steelers’ DB Ryan Clark goes to Denver he will start to melt, poor guy. I hope his agent crosses the Broncos off quickly if his client ever becomes a free agent. Divisional games such as this always take on a different feel. To me the tension in this game that I considered before making the pick was the lid that has been on the Denver offense and the faltering Chiefs’ defense. That was the major factor in the game. One team returned to earlier-season form and one didn’t. I picked correctly.
Cheerleader time and then this week’s picks.
Let me first say the lines are brutal this week. Usually I look through the Vegas lines after having already made my lines on Monday night to find some discrepancies and even a game or two where I have a different team favored than the experts. That is not the case this week. I have the same team favored in each game as the sportsbooks do. I still see some opportunity, but I don’t feel overwhelmingly confident in any games. I feel semi-confident in one. My picks in bold.
Baltimore -10.5 @ Carolina: The Ravens don’t have far to travel and are playing a Panther team that is starting Brian St. Pierre at quarterback. Let that sink in. Baltimore dominates both sides of the ball in this game. Also remember they got a few extra days of rest since they played last Thursday night.
Washington @ Tennessee -7: The Redskins were dominated at home by the Eagles on Monday night. Do the Redskins strike you as a team that will rally on a short week and put together a win on the road? Child, please. I’m sure Albert Haynesworth will be excited to come back and face his former team, so much so that he will try to enter the Titans’ locker room and put on a jersey to play for Tennessee. Vince Young also has something to prove to his team as he has been dogged by questions about his toughness and leadership ability. With further Randy Moss integration I see this as a big win for Tennessee.
Atlanta -3 @ St. Louis: The Rams are coming off of a close road loss. That was about the closest they have been to a road win this year, but just because most of their wins come at home doesn’t mean they will win this week. Atlanta had a few extra days to rest after they beat Baltimore last Thursday night. Atlanta is arguably the best team in the NFC, and I do not see them winning by less that three points. As well as the Rams have been playing I fully expect them to have a lot less wind in their sails the rest of the season.
New York Giants +3 @ Philadelphia: You caught me. So what if I like to pick against teams that play on Monday night and pick for teams that played a Thursday night game the prior week. It makes sense. Apart from that the Giants secondary and overall defense is much better than the Redskins so don’t look for Michael Vick to have near as good a game as he did against the Redskins. I like the Giants to win this game. This is classic Vegas. They are manipulating people to consider how dominant Mike Vick was last week and say, “Well, daggum, that line is too freakin’ low! Let me bet my stupid mortgage on the feel-good redemption story.”
Watch your back for this sort of manipulation. This is chess, not checkers.
Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.
Author: Nonpopulist Published: November 12th, 2010
This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.
After a string of less than stellar weeks I actually went 4-0 in my picks for last week’s Rubetastic. I’m not getting overconfident, though. I’m staying grounded and hungry. This week appears to have some great line opportunities. Let’s look back at last week and bask first, though. Last week brings me to 16-12-3 for the year in my picks.
San Diego -3 @ Houston: RIGHT. I flip-flopped on this game. My initial instinct was to pick the Texans, especially at home. What ultimately changed my mind on this game was how well Philip Rivers did the previous week with a busted up receiving corps and how poorly the Texans’ secondary has been performing. Glad I changed my mind,
Indianapolis +3 @ Philadelphia: RIGHT. I barely got this one right. Philadelphia won 26-24, but I thought the Colts would win outright. What I learned: the trend of the Eagles under Andy Reid winning out of the bye week is one to be respected. RESPECK!
Kansas City @ Oakland -1: RIGHT. Another close call. I almost bit the bullet on this one too. I was thinking Oakland had this by a touchdown. I think the way they won at the end showed their strength as well as if not better than when they beat down Seattle. The Raiders are no joke regardless of who plays quarterback.
UPSET SPECIAL: New England @ Cleveland +4: RIGHT. This pick was mainly based on my gut and above average-sized balls, but I took into account how the Patriots are mostly winning games by a close margin and their offense is going to continually devolve now that Randy Moss is gone. The Patriots‘ Vikings’ loss is the Titans’ game. I didn’t think the freaking Browns would beat the Patriots by 20 points, though. Major trouble sign for the Greatriots.
Cheerleader time:
Where? Back to your place?
This week has some trap games and some real opportunities. I attempt to separate between the two for you. The Detroit @ Buffalo line is currently at Buffalo -3. That feels like a trap. Buffalo has been called the best 0-8 team ever. Hyperbole much? That’s like calling the Arizona Cardinals the worst team to ever make a Super Bowl a few years ago. It just doesn’t add up. This line is too confusing. My instincts are Detroit wins this game outright with Shaun Hill coming back at QB this week. I’m not completely sure how healthy Hill is, though. I would avoid this game if I were about to put money down. Another game that scares me is Dallas @ New York Giants. The line is currently Giants -13.5. Something just does not seem right about this game. The Cowboys are in shambles, but maybe Jason Garrett will keep things status quo enough and the Cowboys’ players will realize that Wade is not the only person in danger of losing their job. My gut says bet the Cowboys to cover, but I just can’t be sure. I’d stay away from that game too. Here are some games I feel better about:
New York Jets -3 @ Cleveland: Cleveland has had some impressive wins this season, but they won’t be sneaking up on the Jets this week. They’ve seen the film on how the Browns have beat other teams and I don’t see a way the Jets get “out-physicaled” by the Browns.
Houston +1.5 @ Jacksonville: Jacksonville still sucks and Houston is good as long as the game isn’t on Monday or Sunday night. Both secondaries are poor, but the Texans get the edge there because their receiving corps is better.
Seattle +3 @ Arizona: How is Arizona still being favored in games? They don’t have a quarterback. Ok, they almost beat a Minnesota Vikings team whose toilet has already been flushed. BFD. Matt Hasslebeck is back for the Seahawks this week too so look for them to get back on track as shaky as their track is.
Kansas City @ Denver +1: An AFC West pick ‘em game, you say? Denver’s at home. The Chiefs have been exposed a little over the past couple of games. I’m least confident about this game, but I’m still confident enough to include this as a pick. Go Broncos.
Let’s see if I can repeat my 4-0 performance from last week. 16-12-3 on the year is not what I was expecting, but I’m above water.
Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.
This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.
Damn, another tough week last week here at Rubetastic. I take full responsibility for1-2 in last week’s picks. Once I have that responsibility in my hands I’m going to give it a jackknife powerbomb because screw it. I felt confident in my picks. I really should have gone ahead and made the Giants over Cowboys pick I alluded to last week. Then I would have at least went 2-2. I need to learn from last week’s mistakes and move on. Let’s learn together.
Last week’s picks:
Minnesota +2.5 @ Green Bay: WRONG- Why doesn’t Minnesota run the ball? Tavaris Jackson should start over Favre.The Vikings offense should be Adrian Peterson and getting Percy Harvin the ball and when defenses guard that well they need to get the ball to Randy Moss. Also, I have been surprised by the Vikings defense. The secondary is not supposed to be playing as well as it is, but the defensive line is not making the plays it should. As slow and hard as Minnesota’s collapse appears to be right now they are still dangerous. You can not write them off.
New England +3 @ San Diego: RIGHT- I didn’t understand this line going in. Was San Diego favored because of the east to west coast travel. We all know it’s west to east coast travel that affects teams more. That’s a large part of why I picked Carolina over San Fransisco the other week in my various pools and such. And San Diego’s skill positions are mostly horrible right now. Who’s going to make the plays? I think Patrick Crayton is the only receiver that is near healthy right now. The running game is a clusterfuck as well. I think Vegas lost money on this game. I can’t see even the less educated betting public betting against the Pats here last week.
Pittsburgh -3 @ Miami: WRONG- This was the most frustrating game for me to see because of how close it was and seeing another Big Ben screw up at the goal line (remember Super Bowl XL against Seattle?) I blame this spread loss on the Steelers defense, but I look for them to bounce back strong this week against New Orleans.
A Ravens cheerleader from week 7. Nice jorts, hun.
On to this week. There are some lines I really like, but wouldn’t advise others to bet. I have three that I will make “my picks” for the week. I’m going to try something new this week. I’m going to give you all of my picks against the spread, but highlight three as my “locks” for the week. I will only count those three toward my running total that I tout which is currently at 14-9-3.
Matchup My line Vegas line My Pick
DEN @ SF DEN -6 DEN -2 DEN
JAC @DAL DAL -1 DAL -6.5 DAL
MIA @ CIN MIA -4 CIN -1.5 MIA
WAS @ DET WAS -4 DET -2.5 WAS
GB @ NYJ NYJ -6.5 NYJ -6 NYJ
CAR @ STL STL -6 STL -3 STL
BUF @ KC KC -7 KC -7.5 KC
MIN @ NE NE -4.5 NE -6 NE
TB @ ARI TB -3 ARI -3 TB
HOU @ IND IND -5.5 IND -5.5 IND
I get why Vegas put their line for the Jacksonville @ Dallas line at DAL -6.5. It’s way smarter than my line. I sometimes forget the lines are set to induce betting on the side Vegas wants the money bet instead of actually trying to handicap the games. Even as bad as the Cowboys have been people will still bet on the Cowboys because of the “America’s team” mystique. It’s stupid, but a certain percentage of people bet on the Steelers, Cowboys, and Patriots regardless of where the line is at. Here are the picks I have more conviction in.
Seattle +2.5 @ Oakland?: Oakland has been playing well, way better than anyone thought. They have a few weaknesses, though. The lack of continuity at quarterback is going to catch up with them. Combine that with Seattle having a fairly good defense (+3 turnover differential, 10th in the league), and Oakland could have a problem on Sunday. I think the Seahawks game plan will be stop the run and cover Zach Miller. I think that game plan will win the game.
Tennessee +3.5 @ San Diego: Tennessee is playing too well for this line to be published. San Diego has not been able to run the ball well recently. This is not a good week to try to get that running game going. Tennessee defends the run well. The Chargers will get a few of their receivers back this week, but they are not whole. Don’t kid yourself. I’m not blind to the fact that Vince Young is still not 100% from his recent knee and ankle injury and he has been horrible against the Chargers each time he has played them. I would also like to point out Jeff Fisher has never beaten San Diego as a head coach. In spite of those past trends you must recognize these are two completely different teams, especially the Chargers. I actually like the Titans to blow out the Chargers.
Pittsburgh +1 @ New Orleans: If the Cleveland Browns can beat the Saints at home then it is definitely possible, nay, probable the Steelers can beat the Saints at home as well. The Steelers have one of the two best, if not the best defense in the league with a +9 turnover differential and some dominating performances turned in. The Steelers’ offense has looked better each week Roethlisberger has been back too. This game is not really about the Saints. They just happen to be the next team Pittsburgh is going to truck. This team is to be feared.
That’s all for this week. I expect to go 3-0 in the picks this week.
Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.
I have watched about a handful of NBA games in the past few years. When I was still living in Florida I jumped on the Orlando Magic bandwagon briefly, but that was mainly about drinking with buddies in bars and the beauty of a town cheering on its sports team during a playoff run. It’s funny because I grew up an NBA fan more so than an NFL fan, but since about the year 2000 the scale has tipped all the way in the NFL’s favor. I have been meaning to watch an NBA playoff game this year after I’ve been hearing so much about it in the form of out-of-context tweeting with way too many exclamation points. The game I chose to watch was the third game in the Spurs vs. Suns series. I thought it may be entertaining to document my thoughts and observations during the experience. It turned out not to be all that entertaining so I have added pictures of hot Phoenix Suns cheerleaders looking nice and slutty. Better? I also forgot to start watching the game until the second half. Oops. (more…)
Once again, I’ve been emailed by a Logician with an important story that needs to be addressed. This particular issue has weighed heavy on my heart and I tried laying it to the side but it was again brought to my attention and therefor, it cannot be ignored. Not to mention I’m in a bad mood and going to let some one have it. As always, my email address is HatedHero11@gmail.com if you have any tips or submissions. Here’s the letter in its entirety in italics, followed by my response in bold:
Dear Logic (or should I say “Greenman” LOLz!),
Hello and thank you for fielding my letter. This is very important. I’m sorry to interrupt your hectic sports month with the Yankees being in the World Series and all…I think it’s very cool that you take the time out to answer all your fan mail from us Logicians!
Now, to get to my question. I’ve noticed that there is this big “pandemic” lately, something called “swine flu”? I guess. I don’t know. All I know is that I’m not a sinner and I wouldn’t get sick like that because God loves me. I don’t know what type of evil these people have in their bodies but it is obviously very strong if something minuscule like “the flu” will kill them! Am I right? I know what you’re thinking, Logic (Ed. Note: Trust me. You have no idea). I’m not a bad person. You, your the bad person. I just need help on this issue because seeing it (and laughing)makes me think that I’m being a bad person. Anyway, here’s the video:
Now Logic, I have a few questions:
Is it bad to say that I would still have sex with her?
Is she still a good cheerleader?
Is it worth it just to die with the flu?
That black reporter seemed smug. Well, I guess that’s not a question.
What’s amazing about this? Does she recover? They just show her struggle.
Logic, I have many more. But I understand that your time is money and the Yankees got Sabathia on the bump. So, please get back to me whenever you get a chance.
Sincerely,
CheerFever
Dear CheerFever,
First off, that is a truly despicable pen-name for this situation. I commend you.
/swigs whiskey
I’m in no mood for any of this garbage. I’ve been having a bad few weeks because despite the Yankees in the World Series, I truly only care about Football and Notre Dame has no shot at a big bowl game. As well as the Giants losing 3 weeks in a row. I also have some personal issues that I won’t bore you with. (crowd cheers) Oh, real mature. You guys are about as cool as a bag of dicks.
Now, to get to your letter…I don’t think it is mean of you to say that you would still sex her down (Ed. Note: syndrome that is! Wakka Wakka Wakka!). I’m sure she would actually appreciate the compliment. You know her husband hasn’t given her any since she turned into a mongoloid. That guy is probably thinking about the raw deal he got. “Wow, I can’t believe I married such a hot woman who aspires to be a professional football cheerleader! What a lucky guy I am” is what I imagine he said on his wedding day. And then he cheated on her once and POW! Now he has medical bills and drooling to deal with. As for your second question, I would think that she is a bad cheerleader. She can barely gum mashed potatoes without passing out, what makes you think she can do a cartwheel? Even though she does look like she could do a cool little dance if she wanted to. Speaking of which:
I would imagine that dying of swine flu would have been a crueler fate because look, now she is being parodied on the internet and people are wondering if this is “karma” for when she made fun of the uncool kids in High School. I wish people that judge your entire life based on high school would get a disease worse than this. Something where they shit themselves a lot. Because then they’d get made fun of. That is true karma. And yes, that black reporter seemed like a smug jerkoff that likes white girls.
And lastly, I would argue that there is NOTHING amazing about this story. At all. It just seems like news media was just using her as something to scare people away from the flu shot. It’s sad. It’s sad that it happened to a fine piece of ass like that. If it happened to Clint Howard? Who cares. He probably walks around like that anyway. Or at least like Smiegel from Lord of the Rings.
Hurrr Hurrr I'm Clint Howard
But let’s be realistic. Cheerleaders are supposed to look like this:
And that broad does not look like this anymore. I think that Swine Flu is going to help our society in the long run, because since no one is working on my idea to re-animate Charles Darwin and give him a Gattling Gun so we need something to take out the assholes and retards of the universe to create a stronger race of humans. Kind of like a sidekick to colon cancer. We are the highest on the food chain, but what happens when the dinosaurs come back? Huh? Then what are you going to do, mister?
And that broad does not look like this anymore. I think that Swine Flu is going to help our society in the long run, because since no one is working on my idea to re-animate Charles Darwin and give him a Gattling Gun so we need something to take out the assholes and retards of the universe to create a stronger race of humans. Kind of like a sidekick to colon cancer. We are the highest on the food chain, but what happens when the dinosaurs come back? Huh? Then what are you going to do, mister?
