The Sunday Sermon: Week 1
- But it does constitute a good time. Hopefully.
Week 1 And it was like Christmas all over again…
Well kids, here we are again. Training camps and preseason are done, teams have made their final roster cuts, and Matt Leinart still doesn’t have a starting QB job even after the retirement of Kurt Warner. All is well in the NFL.
There have been quite a few changes in the NFL this season since the New Orleans Saints hoisted the Lombardi Trophy for the first time in franchise history, but that’s not for this week’s Sermon. So if you’ve been away from the NFL for awhile, NFL.com is probably a great place to start to get caught up to speed before diving into another season of the NFL.
Before I make this week’s picks, I just want to say that this year is shaping up to be one of those ‘WTF’ kind of years in the NFL. Last year there were a really good handful of crappy teams and picking games was a little bit easier than most years in the NFL. So I’d like to preface this year’s season by saying, “I have no idea what the fuck is going to happen this year, and anyone who pretends like they do should have their head examined.”
That’s the way most seasons in the NFL work, but I just want to reiterate that this year, it’s going to get messy (or so I think…). And Week 1 is just the beginning with it’s “Who-the-fuck-am-I-supposed-to-pick-in-that-game?” slate of games.
Picks in BOLD and Italics
Minnesota @ New Orleans
New Orleans returns the majority of their lineup from last year’s championship team, and will be very tough to beat at home on the night they raise a Super Bowl banner to the rafters. Drew Brees is one of the league’s best signal callers, and Head Coach Sean Payton still call plays for one of the league’s most dangerous offenses. Minnesota led the league last year with 48 sacks, but only racked up 11 interceptions. That’s a pretty weird stat for a team with such a dominant pass rush, so it makes you really wonder how effective that Minnesota secondary really is. But Brees is one of the best when facing pressure and should carve up the Vikings’ secondary with precision in the intermediate passing game against their Cover-2 scheme (the same defence that Brees carved up in the Super Bowl against the Colts…). The Vikings are probably still choked over last year’s loss in the epic NFC Championship game, and Brett Favre is back for one last shot with those purple-wearing losers. The Vikes still have weapons in the passing game at their disposal despite the loss of WR Sidney Rice with WR Percy Harvin and TE Visanthe Shiancoe, and they still have one of the leagues best runningbacks in Adrian Peterson. Is Favre going to get a little too excited? Is he going to deviate from the gameplan? Are the ballhawks in the Saints’ secondary going to be all over that? It’s going to be a heck of a game to kick off the year, but I think the Saints pick up right where they left off.
Cleveland @ Tampa Bay
I’m not really sure what to expect from this game besides a whole lot of crap. Cleveland has gone through a little bit of a makeover this offseason after Mike Holmgren came in as the new President of the Browns. The Mangenius is still around with the headset but the Browns have a new look at quarterback with Jake Delhomme. Ouch. Tampa Bay spent two high draft picks on defensive tackles in hopes of improving one of the league’s worst run defences from last year, but the majority of questions surround the development of their offense with young quarterback Josh Freeman. Both teams have very serious questions at the skill positions and will probably be pretty happy to run the ball and keep things conservative on offense. When in doubt, flip a coin.
Miami @ Buffalo
Miami made some pretty nice upgrades in the offseason on both sides of the ball with the addition of WR Brandon Marshall and LB Karlos Dansby. Marshall should be QB Chad Henne’s favorite target this year, and should continue to punish opposing defensive backs if teams are looking to stop Miami’s run game first. Miami is in year 3 of their switch to a 3-4 defensive scheme, and Dansby should definitely help improve the LB unit who will be relied on to make plays. Buffalo still has a whole bunch of problems all over the field, except in the secondary. Last year the Bills ranked 2nd in pass defence and 2nd in INTs. The first stat may be skewed slightly due to the fact that the Bills couldn’t stop the run last year, ranking 30th in that category. One could argue that teams didn’t throw on the Bills because they didn’t have to. Actually, if that was the case, then I think being 2nd in INT is actually even more impressive with reduced opportunities. The Bills will still have problems stopping the run this year (Kyle Williams as your NT is not very inspiring…trust me…I have him on my team in Madden ‘11…) and Miami will probably be patient with Chad Henne early on and run, run, run, with some short and play action passes. I don’t think it’s a secret how a team should attack the Bills, and I don’t particularly think it’ll be that difficult this season. Cincinnati @ New England T-O! T-O! The Bengals are definitely this year’s most interesting team to watch, and I love their defence. The problem is that I hate their first matchup of the year having to go to Gillette Stadium and take on New England. If you watched any of the preseason, Tom Brady’s got that ‘perma-pissed-off’ look on his face and last year’s embarrassing exit in the playoffs against Baltimore surely has left a sour taste in his mouth. Pissed off Tom and Contract-Year Randy Moss might mean fireworks for the Patriots’ offense this year. The Bengals are going to go as far as the arm of Carson Palmer will take them, and with the schedule they have this year, they better hope it gets a lot better than it looked in preseason. This one ought to be close, but it’s tough to bet against Belichek in Week 1 at home.
Indianapolis @ Houston
Last year when I picked Houston to win games that they were supposed to win, they lost, and when they were supposed to lose or it was iffy, they won. So I don’t know what to do with the Texans this year. Picking Indianapolis all year was great until they pissed away their chance at a perfect season *cough* wankers…*cough* but at least they were easy to pick. And there’s not really much to say about either team that’s much different from last year. The Colts are still the Colts, and the Texans are still the Texans, but with what appears to be an improved running game. The mess at halfback seems to be sorted out with the promotion of RB Arian Foster to the starting role. Actually, the defensive line has looked improved as well (Mario Williams is a beast) and the linebackers are developing nicely with Brian Cushing and Demeco Ryans. Oh, and Matt Schaub passed for enough yards last season for it to be a Top-10 all time performance for a single season. Oh, and they still have arguably the league’s best WR in Andre Johnson…I always do this. I always talk myself into these guys. I want to take the Texans here. I really do. Then I get visions of Sage Rosenfels flying in the air like a helicopter, and Peyton Manning slinging it all over the field with ease…And then I realize I’m taking way too many road teams this week and think, “F*ck it. It’s Week 1 baby!!”
Denver @ Jacksonville
Losing Elvis Dumervil for the season is really going to hurt the Broncos (especially in this game because I was sure that he would crack David Garrard for at least five ‘He-Got-Jacked-Up‘ type sacks), but the personnel of the Jags has more holes than a…than a…(Keep it PG…Keep it PG) GOLF COURSE! Do I really have to pick this game? I mean, really? Does anybody know who is running the ball for the Broncos? Is Knowshon Moreno going to be ready for this game? Are we going to see Tim Tebow aka Jesus Christ on the field? Is anyone else concerned with the reports regarding Maurice Jones-Drew’s knee?? Can the Jags sell their home opener out? Does anyone really care? I don’t.
Atlanta @ Pittsburgh
If the Falcons want to be in the hunt for the wildcard this year, this is a game they are going to have to take advantage of. Without Ben Roethlisberger behind center for 4 games, the Falcons caught a break on the schedule by getting their game at Heinz Field plotted in Week 1. I think the Falcons have just enough weapons and a hungry enough defense to win this game. The Steelers are going to struggle to run the football if the Falcons load up the box and challenge Dennis Dixon at QB, so is home field and one of the league’s best defensive units going to be enough for Steel Town? They better hope so, because with games @ Tennessee, @ Tampa Bay, and home to Baltimore in the next 3 weeks, they might be heading into the bye week 1-3.
Oakland @ Tennessee
Don’t laugh, but the Raiders are getting better. It’s going to take a little bit of time, but this is going to be one of this year’s cover teams. Last year they played in a lot of close games, beat some good teams, and that was with JaMarcus Russell at QB. Yes, THAT JaMarcus Russell. So why not pick them here? Well, as much as Jason Campbell is going to improve the passing game (addition by subtraction at the very least), it’s not going to be where they want it to be (power running with a deep play action passing attack to use their speedsters on the outside) right away. It’s going to take a little time. Not to mention the injury to RB Michael Bush doesn’t help matters either. Plus, this team had trouble stopping the run last year, and even though a rumoured move to the 3-4 better suits their personnel, they are facing Chris Johnson this week. Yes, THAT Chris Johnson. Did I also mention that the Raiders are 6.5-point underdogs this week (the second highest of the week)? Not to mention they are on the road, and Jeff Fischer is one of the best Head Coaches in the NFL. The importance of coaching, game planning, and execution can never be overstated in the NFL, and even though I may have gone the other way if this game was later in the year, I can’t take the Raiders this week. Can’t do it.
Carolina @ New York Giants
Carolina’s like a box of chocolates: You know how that one goes. Most people know that I have a huge man crush on RB Jonathan Stewart, and love the way that Carolina runs the football, but I’m not a fan of lame duck coaches (John Fox), inexperienced quarterbacks (Matt Moore) with high draft pick rookie quarterbacks (Jimmy Clausen) nipping at their heels, and games on the road against pissed off teams who can be dangerous when healthy (the G-Men). The Giants’ defensive line is healthy, Eli Manning actually had a little bit of “the look” (as much as I hate to admit it) last year, and WR Hakeen Nicks is a stud in the making. So I’m not taking Carolina, and Vegas doesn’t think you should either (Currently, the Panthers are this week’s biggest underdogs at +7.5).
Detroit @ Chicago
Has anyone watched these teams in the preseason? I have, because I’m a Bears fan. They look like absolute garbage. The offensive line looks terrible, Jay Cutler is going to get killed and probably miss time at some point this season, and the secondary has the pleasure of facing Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, and quickly-improving gunslinger Matthew Stafford a total of 6 times this year combined. Uhhhh, eeep! But can I really take the Lions in Soldier Field? When Vegas has them as the other 6.5-point dogs for the week like the Raiders? Help me Mike Singletary. Help me.
Arizona @ St. Louis
See, now this is an interesting game. I honestly have no idea what to do here. I know that the Rams are going to really suck, but this is the NFL right? They may as well have me lining up at split end to catch passes, but they do have one of the best runningbacks in the game in Steven Jackson and while he may be a rookie quarterback, Sam Bradford has looked great in the preseason. Oh Kurt Warner, why did you have to leave? But, road team or not, I am not betting against Larry Fitzgerald against whoever the hell is in the St. Louis secondary. And yes, I don’t care that Derek Anderson is throwing him the ball either. He’s Larry f*ckin’ Fitzgerald.
Green Bay @ Philadelphia
Last year, when the Arizona Cardinals beat Green Bay in the playoffs after that epic game of Tecmo Bowl, I said to my brother “The Packers are going to the SuperBowl next year, mark it down.” Then the steam started to pick up during the offseason. Then the ‘experts’ started talking about the Packers, and Aaron Rodgers began to look unstoppable in preseason, and Jermichael Finley was skyrocketing up fantasy football draft boards, and everyone started creaming in their pants over the possibilities and potential of their offense. And then…the tires came to a screeching halt. Wait a second. Could this team be getting hyped way too much? They were 11-5 last year, with an easy schedule, and managed to still do what they did with a turnover differential of -24? Are they overvalued? Or am I just looking for reasons to pick a Packers loss at Philly this week? Am I reading too many articles on gambling? I mean, with the strength of the NFC East, Philly needs to win games like these at home, right? Right? I look forward to being able to use Charlie Murphy’s famous “Wrong! Wrong!” next week. Stay tuned.
San Francisco @ Seattle
What did the 5 fingers say to the face? SLAP! That’s exactly what the 49ers are going to do to the Seachickens this week. Patrick Willis might even send Matt Hasselbeck into an early retirement. Not even joking. That man is scary. Dallas @ Washington Yes, the Cowboys looked like crap in the preseason. Yes, the Redskins will be better with Donovan McNabb at QB this year. But folks, for teams like the Cowboys, preseason football is like a dry jerk: It’s useless. Besides, the Cowboys can’t be dropping games like this if they want to play in the SuperBowl this year in The House That Jerry Built! Aaaaand watch them lose and Cowboy Nation go into Panic-Mode. I’ve seen crazier things.
Baltimore @ New York Jets
Two words: Statement game. If there has been a bigger hype-train than the one that’s been picking up passengers riding Baltimore heading into this season, then it‘s the one carrying passengers riding the New York Jets. For Rex Ryan and his boys, it’s time to stop talking, and see if they can live up to the hype. Good news: Darelle Revis is signed and ready to go. For the Ravens, the offense will have to pick up a little bit of the slack for the decline in their aging defence. The strength of this defence comes from its front seven, but there are questions in the secondary with cornerback depth and the absence of Ed Reed. But it’s not like the Jets can throw the ball anyways, right? It’s a great game to kickoff a double-header on Monday Night Football, and I think the Ray-Ray-Train is calling my name.
San Diego @ Kansas City
The Chiefs suck and the Chargers’ offense is looking like it’s in midseason form. Kansas City coach Todd Haley might actually be giving more touches to Thomas Jones when he should be going with Jamaal Charles all day. Matt Cassel’s time would be better utilized by signing over weekly royalty cheques to the Patriots for his payday last year, because he sucks. Things are getting a little better in Kansas City, but this team really has no identity, partially because after more than a year already their Head Coach still hasn’t decided on his. I really hope I don’t have to justify this pick any further. But just in case, let me reiterate: The Chiefs suck.
Edit:This article and Deacon’s other non-football writing can be found at his website here
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