I know not many people read this. I see the blog statistics and everything, but I care about this as a matter of pride. Last week’s performance 1-3 on picks against the spread is simply appalling. I’m ashamed. I plan to unleash hell on this week’s picks, but not in the same sort of sucky way Mike Tomlin meant last year. Let’s look at my screw ups and laugh. We can laugh about it, right guys? I’m now 23-20-3 on the season. Ouch.
Cleveland @ Miami -5: WRONG. I thought Miami had somewhat rallied after going on the road and beating a much-improved Oakland Raiders team. Miami’s inconsistency this season should have signaled me to stay away from picking this game. Cleveland’s not any better. Some people actually think this is a good team. They have had some great upsets, though.
Jacksonville @ Tennessee -3: WRONG. O, Tennessee decided to not play against a division rival. Time to consider betting against Tennessee every week. I don’t care what people say. Most of the players on this team have quit, and I say that being a Titans fan.
St. Louis -3.5 @ Arizona: RIGHT. I had the feeling Arizona was a good bet after how horrible they have been playing. Still this was only St. Louis’ second road win of the season.
Bonus game- Chicago -5 @ Detroit: WRONG. I hate being wrong by one point as much as the Westboro Baptist Church fags hate… fags. I guess the lesson here is Detroit should be respected against the spread. I guess.
Let’s take a look at a cheerleader and then this week’s picks.
This week I am either going to completely redeem myself or dig myself deeper in the hole. I have my lines set very similar to what Vegas has on most games this week. I only have different teams favored than Vegas on two games. I like my games for inducing equal action as well as Vegas’ (that is the point of betting lines, after all), but seeing the Vegas lines makes me want to pick those games. Here goes. I’m picking more games than usual this week to try to get back on the winning track. This might not end well.
Cleveland @ Buffalo -1: Now that Buffalo has the monkey of having not won a game off of their back I like them to pick up a couple of more wins this season. This is the perfect game to pick up another win. Cleveland is having to travel a good distance in back to back weeks and Buffalo does have a decent home advantage. Despite losing games Buffalo has been able to put up a good amount of points in some games. I also like Jake Delhomme to wake from the dream state he played in last week and remember he’s Jake Delhomme and throw a few picks to Buffalo. I had the same line as Vegas on this game.
Cincinatti -8.5 @ Pittsburgh: I would like this game even more the higher the line gets favoring Pittsburgh. The Bengals will most likely not win the game, but they are desperate and still have talent on the team. If Cincy can get the medium passing game and screen passes going I think they can work on a Pittsburgh defense that will want to blitz Carson Palmer. The Steelers are probably still sore from last Sunday night’s tough game against the Ravens.
Tampa Bay -2 @ Washington: The Bucs lost a tough game at home last week against Atlanta, but if they can hang with Atlanta they should be able to beat the Redskins by more than 2 points.
St. Louis +9 @ New Orleans: The bottom line is New Orleans is not the behemoth they were last season. The Saints will still likely win this game, but St. Louis can keep this game closer than 9 points. The Saints may have Pierre Thomas back this week, but I think him and Reggie Bush are more a frustration than a help at this point. Ivory and Julius Jones seem more capable than guys coming off of medium-term injuries.
Seattle +5.5 @ San Fransisco: I seem to have been doing well this year with the NFC West. I am convinced Seattle will win this game outright. San Fransisco is going back to Alex Smith at quarterback so Smith will have a chip on his shoulder and try even harded to force those interceptions in there. This is one of the lines where Vegas and I differed on the favorite. I had Seattle favored.
Denver @ Arizona +5.5: O, so just because Dallas and Minnesota made head coaching changes and had instant success you think that will happen this week as Denver’s running backs’ coach takes over as interim head coach? Not bloody likely. This game is for gamblers, though. I would put a less than average amount on this game. This is the other game where Vegas and I differed. I’ve been doing ok in the NFC West this year.
Kansas City @ San Diego -6.5: This game wasn’t on the board at Sportsbook.com where I normally pull the Vegas lines from since KC QB Matt Cassell is most likely not playing. I had my line at San Diego -9 so if you can find San Diego -6.5 I would be all over it. That would be a “bet the mortgage” type of situation. I got the 6.5 number from ESPN’s pick ‘em contest.
Philadelphia -3.5 @ Dallas: I can just see Michael Vick carving up Dallas’ secondary on 20 yard in routes. This game will be ugly. Dallas does not have the people to stop Vick. Dallas will miss Dez Bryant even though he has been quiet in games before being put on injured reserve. He has been quiet because opposing defenses have been keying on him a little more. Have you noticed how Dallas has been running the ball a little bit better? Defenses have been having to account for 2.5 receivers plus Jason Witten. (I only count Roy Williams as a half of a guy.)
Here’s hoping for an improvement on 23-20-3. That’s pretty bad.
Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.
This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.
I’m later than a hooker that lets you go raw dog’s period this week so I’ll keep it short. Last week sucked. I only got one game correct. So I was 1-2 last week bringing this season’s total to 22-17-3. All I can say about that is it is better than a losing record. My head is well above water for the season. Let’s look back at last week.
New Orleans -3.5 @ Dallas: WRONG. My thinking here was Dallas is a team that just went through a huge transition to a first-time head coach and if there would be an optimum time to falter it would be on a short week. I was right about them faltering, but wrong on the spread by a half point. That is one of the worst feelings as a bettor, to be wrong by half a point.
Green Bay +2 @ Atlanta: WRONG. I thought Green Bay would win outright. Obviously we all saw what happened in the game. If the Falcons can get consistent they have a chance to be a contender in the playoffs this year. I have been impressed with the team, but they have faltered at times. Matt Ryan is maturing at an exponential rate.
San Fransisco -1 @ Arizona: RIGHT. I was very confused by this line and remain so. As much as Arizona is in disarray right now I am tempted to take the other team against the spread the rest of the season. They’ll get another win, though. If they have any division games left look for them to try to be a spoiler and probably succeed. San Fransisco is playing better, but they are still a middle of the pack team.
Let’s look at a cheerleader and then this week’s picks against the spread.
This week has some interesting matchups in which I think the quarterback playing or not playing will make the difference.
Cleveland @ Miami -5: Jake Delhomme is starting this week. Aaawww, peaches! (That’s what I hypothesize Jake exclaims after he throws each interception in his attempt to break the all-time interceptions thrown record.) Miami at home by at least a touchdown. No brainer. I would bet an above average amount on this game if betting were legal where I live.
Jacksonville @ Tennessee -3: Hear me out on this one. Kerry Collins is not a bad quarterback. He is about 3rd or 4th on the all-time passing yard list among active players. He makes the difference for the Titans this week. Tennessee is at home in a playoff race against a team they have already beaten badly at their home stadium this week. Fisher historically owns the Jaguars. I am a fan of the Titans so I can’t advise betting above your standard bet, but if I were betting I would double what I normally bet and pick out a prostitute for later. Moss will get the ball in this game and Chris Johnson will have at least a touchdown and 85 yards rushing. Am I getting too bold with my predictions? Probably.
St. Louis -3.5 @ Arizona: Remember what I said about possibly betting against Arizona the rest of the season. When I saw this line it became obvious to me Vegas is thinking the same thing. This line seems golden on the surface, but you have to go a bit deeper on this line. Remember Vegas is playing chess not checkers. The Rams won for the first time on the road last week. That is a big deal for this team. To have to go on the road out west for a second consecutive week and try to win again is difficult for most teams, but we are talking about the Cardinals team that is likely frustrated and looking to play with at least some pride this week. The problem is Derek Anderson is most definitely not the same Derek Anderson who made the Pro Bowl a few years ago. The Cardinals will play a little better this week but for this team that means maybe a field goal or at best a touchdown.
Bonus game- Chicago -5 @ Detroit: Drew Stanton is starting this week. The Bears defense has been impressive in almost every game this season. If they can slow down Michael Vick like they did last week the Beard defense can send Drew Stanton back in time. As far as the Chicago offense they are the type of offensive units who thrive against bad defenses. As long as the Bears offensive line can stop Suh, Vanden Bosch, and whoever else rushes for the Lions this will be a good week for Martz, Cutler, and especially Forte. Book it.
Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.
Author: Nonpopulist Published: November 30th, 2010
One of the biggest stories from the NFL weekend was the fight between Tennessee Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan and Houston Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson. I can objectively say it was one of the best NFL fights in recent memory, and the camera didn’t cut away like it normally does and get a shot of an assistant coach picking his nose on the sideline instead of showing us the throwdown. Check it out below:
Andre Johnson wins the matchup by unanimous decision. Both Johnson and Finnegan have subsequently been fined $25,000 by the league. Many think the league should have fined Finnegan more or even suspended him since he has been fined repeatedly for aggressive play this season. Others have said Johnson should have been fined more or suspended because he actually threw and landed punches during the fight. The league had their reasons to hand down the punishment they did and can not be questioned because the commissioner’s office has shown they reign over the NFL with an iron fist and can change whatever they want during the season to the point where they changed being able to change rules during the season. The National Football League has said publicly before they wouldn’t do that. That changed when they decided they wanted to do it this year.
The problem I see with the situation is not necessarily the fines, but the bull shit moralizing that has been thrown Finnegan’s and the Titans’ way. This season is not the first in which the Tennessee Titans have been called dirty. The chatter has been more frequent and intense this year with everyone from Kyle Orton to Rodney Harrison crying pussy tears about the mean old Titans. I’m telling the media on you. Wah.
Yes, the Titans bait people into committing penalties out of frustration (i.e. the New York Giants game this season) to gain an edge. If that’s dirty then every NFL team is dirty and not just this season. Baiting teams psychologically to gain an edge is something that exists in sport, but just because the Titans are the freaking best at it people want throw up their arms and flail around, cry, and run to tug on daddy’s pant leg. Buck the fuck up you blithering babies. But the players and teams aren’t even who anger me the most. The media and people who think they are media online who are so ready to jump on people and float any opinion or theory they fart out of their ass are the ones who fill me with rage. I don’t mind jokes or people raising questions about the play in a reasonable manner, but I saw a few people who wanted to make it some sort of moral issue. Check yourselves, idiots. One person even called Cortland Finnegan a “soulless prick” and “just the kind of guy Jeff Fisher would like to coach.” That’s a bit over doing it in your attempt to make your bold statement that you feel will resonate authoritatively throughout the interwebz, douche juice. Many people said things along the line of Finnegan “got what he deserved.” I’ve got news for everyone. The golden thrones you sit upon from which you dole out your righteous internet justice are made of pee-soaked urinal cakes.
The person who drew most of my rage Sunday evening was Rodney Harrison. On Football Night in America he took another opportunity to pile on the Titans much like he did during his playing days. He’s called Tennessee dirty more than a few times now and frankly I am getting sick of him not knowing what the definition of the word hypocrite is. I saw many Patriot games when Harrison was playing and always marveled at how many times he dove into piles after the whistle helmet-first. He was one of the dirtiest players in the league during his playing days, but somehow he has forgotten this. The reason he always picks on the Titans is because that was the team he was playing against in the game where his MCL, PCL, and ACL were destroyed. He feels indignant toward the Titans and has held onto it for years feeling he was wronged. What he doesn’t remember is he made his own dirty plays during that game doing his usual diving into piles and even hitting the quarterback late and high in the game. Does anyone know if he had any concussions during his playing days? Is that contributing to his memory loss?
Parting thought: for those who think the Titans are dirty you are the fans for whom Roger Goodell is turning the NFL into a pussy league.
Author: Nonpopulist Published: November 24th, 2010
This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.
Right back up in your mofuggin ass, down south flavor. I’m writing this post on Four Loko so forgive if it messes with your world a lil’ bit. It’s a holiday week, and this will be my second post for The Gally Blog while I have yet to update my own blog so we’ll keep this week short. Let’s look back at last week.
Baltimore -10.5 @ Carolina: RIGHT. Carolina’s in shambles. The Ravens didn’t have far to travel for this game. I knew even as high as this line was it looked good.
Washington @ Tennessee -7: WRONG. Never bet on your favorite team. The Titans are my favorite team. I justify that by saying I didn’t actually bet on my team, but advised it. How was I suppose to know Vince Young was going to be unable to hide
Atlanta -3 @ St. Louis: RIGHT. This line looked low. Atlanta has been considered one of the best teams in the league. Hmmmm… you do the geomotry.
New York Giants +3 @ Philadelphia: WRONG. I guess Philly is for real. New York looks to be on a late season downtrend as their running game can’t even wipe themselves and almost all of their receivers are hurt. Sorry Logic.
Cheerleader and then this week’s picks:
I started reading the book Lay the Favorite by Beth Raymer. The book is a great narrative about sports betting. It’s story-driven, but still includes some great betting information. I’m 60 pages in and I give it the Nonpopulist seal of approval. This week’s picks.
New Orleans -3.5 @ Dallas: Both teams are on a short week. Dallas is bound to be more apt to lose a game after the initial success from changing coaches and players realizing they have to actually play football well in order to keep their jobs. I side with a more established team coaching-wise on a short week. No brainer.
Green Bay +2 @ Atlanta: Atlanta has been mentioned as one of the best teams in the NFL, but Green Bay is better. I like this line. I like it to be a close game, but any line 2.5 or under is a pick ‘em game. I pick Green Bay to win and beat the spread. The Packers have the ability to blow the Falcons out too. They will love playing in a dome in the south and getting a break from the cold as well. The Packer’s defense is lighting up chumps, knocking out suckers, smoking fools, and talking noise about it this year. They’ve fired 2 coaches this year. Respect them.
San Fransisco -1 @ Arizona: This line is money in the bank. The Niners do not have far to travel and have flourished with Troy Smith as quarterback. I like the 49ers in this game a lot. I would put an above average bet on this game.
I’m 21-15-3 on the year in these picks. I’m stepping my game up. Oh, this is the huge heterosexuals edition because my buddy Dan said that earlier, and I thought it was funny. I thought it was funny because we are both huge heterosexuals.
Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.
Author: Nonpopulist Published: November 19th, 2010
This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.
I’ve been kicking myself for not going with my instincts on the DAL @ NYG game. Read last week’s post to know what I mean about that (spoiler alert: I almost talked myself into picking that upset.) If I had a way to legally bet I would have bet that game. I would have put a smaller bet on it, but I definitely would have put something on it. The line was too big. Either way I was 3-1 in my picks I publish here last week bringing my season record to 19-13-3. I busted that little slump I was having about like I busted your sister’s cherry. Let’s review last week’s picks.
New York Jets -3 @ Cleveland: RIGHT. The reason I was right on this despite many people starting to think the Browns were some sort of “giant-killer” that was going to run over the league behind Peyton “The Dump Truck” Hillis is because I remembered they were the fucking Browns. People are going to be ready for the Browns from here on out. Hillis is a white running back. Do I need to put smelling salts in your face? O, and Josh Cribbs is an awesome player, but what’s up with his blackcent? It’s near Tyson level.
Houston +1.5 @ Jacksonville: WRONG. Sure it ended on a fluke play, but I think what I learned here is despite the strides the Texans have made and the close games they won earlier in the year they still don’t know how to win on a consistent basis. There’s a certain mentality teams get, a certain way they carry themselves, and a certain way they go out an beat teams they should beat. I’m reminded of one of the two Denver Bronco teams that won the Super Bowl. I can’t remember which, and I’m not going to take the time to look it up because I’m already going to have this up later than I want. A lot of people like to play Contender or Pretender. Well, the Texans are a pretender. That’s still better than the Jaguars. They’re fucking holograms.
Seattle +3 @ Arizona: RIGHT. Don’t worry, Vegas. I got the joke you were trying to make with this line. A team with no starting quarterback getting the standard 3 points every home team in the NFL starts with when you begin handicapping games. Funny stuff, guys. Seattle is no juggernaut, but they are dick and balls above the Cardinals even on the road.
Kansas City @ Denver +1: RIGHT. People often forget Denver is a different team at home. Mile high, mountain air, John Denver? Any of this ringing a bell? Shit, if Steelers’ DB Ryan Clark goes to Denver he will start to melt, poor guy. I hope his agent crosses the Broncos off quickly if his client ever becomes a free agent. Divisional games such as this always take on a different feel. To me the tension in this game that I considered before making the pick was the lid that has been on the Denver offense and the faltering Chiefs’ defense. That was the major factor in the game. One team returned to earlier-season form and one didn’t. I picked correctly.
Cheerleader time and then this week’s picks.
Let me first say the lines are brutal this week. Usually I look through the Vegas lines after having already made my lines on Monday night to find some discrepancies and even a game or two where I have a different team favored than the experts. That is not the case this week. I have the same team favored in each game as the sportsbooks do. I still see some opportunity, but I don’t feel overwhelmingly confident in any games. I feel semi-confident in one. My picks in bold.
Baltimore -10.5 @ Carolina: The Ravens don’t have far to travel and are playing a Panther team that is starting Brian St. Pierre at quarterback. Let that sink in. Baltimore dominates both sides of the ball in this game. Also remember they got a few extra days of rest since they played last Thursday night.
Washington @ Tennessee -7: The Redskins were dominated at home by the Eagles on Monday night. Do the Redskins strike you as a team that will rally on a short week and put together a win on the road? Child, please. I’m sure Albert Haynesworth will be excited to come back and face his former team, so much so that he will try to enter the Titans’ locker room and put on a jersey to play for Tennessee. Vince Young also has something to prove to his team as he has been dogged by questions about his toughness and leadership ability. With further Randy Moss integration I see this as a big win for Tennessee.
Atlanta -3 @ St. Louis: The Rams are coming off of a close road loss. That was about the closest they have been to a road win this year, but just because most of their wins come at home doesn’t mean they will win this week. Atlanta had a few extra days to rest after they beat Baltimore last Thursday night. Atlanta is arguably the best team in the NFC, and I do not see them winning by less that three points. As well as the Rams have been playing I fully expect them to have a lot less wind in their sails the rest of the season.
New York Giants +3 @ Philadelphia: You caught me. So what if I like to pick against teams that play on Monday night and pick for teams that played a Thursday night game the prior week. It makes sense. Apart from that the Giants secondary and overall defense is much better than the Redskins so don’t look for Michael Vick to have near as good a game as he did against the Redskins. I like the Giants to win this game. This is classic Vegas. They are manipulating people to consider how dominant Mike Vick was last week and say, “Well, daggum, that line is too freakin’ low! Let me bet my stupid mortgage on the feel-good redemption story.”
Watch your back for this sort of manipulation. This is chess, not checkers.
Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.
Author: Nonpopulist Published: November 12th, 2010
This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.
After a string of less than stellar weeks I actually went 4-0 in my picks for last week’s Rubetastic. I’m not getting overconfident, though. I’m staying grounded and hungry. This week appears to have some great line opportunities. Let’s look back at last week and bask first, though. Last week brings me to 16-12-3 for the year in my picks.
San Diego -3 @ Houston: RIGHT. I flip-flopped on this game. My initial instinct was to pick the Texans, especially at home. What ultimately changed my mind on this game was how well Philip Rivers did the previous week with a busted up receiving corps and how poorly the Texans’ secondary has been performing. Glad I changed my mind,
Indianapolis +3 @ Philadelphia: RIGHT. I barely got this one right. Philadelphia won 26-24, but I thought the Colts would win outright. What I learned: the trend of the Eagles under Andy Reid winning out of the bye week is one to be respected. RESPECK!
Kansas City @ Oakland -1: RIGHT. Another close call. I almost bit the bullet on this one too. I was thinking Oakland had this by a touchdown. I think the way they won at the end showed their strength as well as if not better than when they beat down Seattle. The Raiders are no joke regardless of who plays quarterback.
UPSET SPECIAL: New England @ Cleveland +4: RIGHT. This pick was mainly based on my gut and above average-sized balls, but I took into account how the Patriots are mostly winning games by a close margin and their offense is going to continually devolve now that Randy Moss is gone. The Patriots‘ Vikings’ loss is the Titans’ game. I didn’t think the freaking Browns would beat the Patriots by 20 points, though. Major trouble sign for the Greatriots.
Cheerleader time:
Where? Back to your place?
This week has some trap games and some real opportunities. I attempt to separate between the two for you. The Detroit @ Buffalo line is currently at Buffalo -3. That feels like a trap. Buffalo has been called the best 0-8 team ever. Hyperbole much? That’s like calling the Arizona Cardinals the worst team to ever make a Super Bowl a few years ago. It just doesn’t add up. This line is too confusing. My instincts are Detroit wins this game outright with Shaun Hill coming back at QB this week. I’m not completely sure how healthy Hill is, though. I would avoid this game if I were about to put money down. Another game that scares me is Dallas @ New York Giants. The line is currently Giants -13.5. Something just does not seem right about this game. The Cowboys are in shambles, but maybe Jason Garrett will keep things status quo enough and the Cowboys’ players will realize that Wade is not the only person in danger of losing their job. My gut says bet the Cowboys to cover, but I just can’t be sure. I’d stay away from that game too. Here are some games I feel better about:
New York Jets -3 @ Cleveland: Cleveland has had some impressive wins this season, but they won’t be sneaking up on the Jets this week. They’ve seen the film on how the Browns have beat other teams and I don’t see a way the Jets get “out-physicaled” by the Browns.
Houston +1.5 @ Jacksonville: Jacksonville still sucks and Houston is good as long as the game isn’t on Monday or Sunday night. Both secondaries are poor, but the Texans get the edge there because their receiving corps is better.
Seattle +3 @ Arizona: How is Arizona still being favored in games? They don’t have a quarterback. Ok, they almost beat a Minnesota Vikings team whose toilet has already been flushed. BFD. Matt Hasslebeck is back for the Seahawks this week too so look for them to get back on track as shaky as their track is.
Kansas City @ Denver +1: An AFC West pick ‘em game, you say? Denver’s at home. The Chiefs have been exposed a little over the past couple of games. I’m least confident about this game, but I’m still confident enough to include this as a pick. Go Broncos.
Let’s see if I can repeat my 4-0 performance from last week. 16-12-3 on the year is not what I was expecting, but I’m above water.
Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.
This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.
I suck. That’s the only way to put it. Last week was horrible for me as far as picks go. 0-3 on my pick bringing me to 14-12-3 on the year. I’m an unacceptable cock whore. That is the only explanation I can provide. Just think if people actually read this and took my advice. That would be bad. Let’s take a brief look back at how much I love cock and picking games wrong.
Seattle +2.5 @ Oakland: WRONG. Seattle had been playing good defense, but Oakland exposed the inside of Seahawks’ labia with a 33-3 beatdown. Jason Campbell played well while Matt Hasslebeck had a performance on par with a Helen Keller foot job. I can not be the only handicapper who is having a hard time adjusting to surprisingly effective Oakland Raiders, can I?
Tennessee +3,5 @ San Diego: WRONG. Tennessee crapped the bed during a game they should have won handily. Confounding.
Pittsburgh +1 @ New Orleans: WRONG. Pittsburgh’s strong defense disappeared, and the Saints offense was surprisingly competent. This game made me sick to watch.
Now to cleanse the pain with a cheerleader from week 8.
I’m going to get directly to the picks this week since this is going to go up way later than usual since, as I mentioned before, I’m an unacceptable cock whore. My picks in bold.
San Diego -3 @ Houston:San Diego got their first win in a while last week by upsetting Tennessee, but now they have to go on the road to a Houston team looking to get right after a disappointing loss to the Colts on Monday night. Antonio Gates is hurt, but probably going to play again this week. The Chargers have a recent history of starting slow and coming on stronger in the middle of the season. The Texans are suspect.
Indianapolis +3 @ Philadelphia: Yes, I know Andy Reid and the Eagles usually win off of the bye week. How many in a row is it, like 5 or 6? I don’t care. Manning showed a lot on Monday night against Houston. It’s going to be hard to doubt Manning even on the road with a banged up receiving corp and banged up defense for the Colts. The offensive line is the key for Manning and they are getting it done.
Kansas City @ Oakland -1: Oakland is for real. I have adjusted my thinking on Oakland. They are an actual NFL football team and Kansas City has been exposed a little bit lately. If the Raiders key on stopping the running game of the Chiefs they will win today by more than one point.
Upset special:New England @ Cleveland +4: Straight up gut call. Patriots have been playing games close. The Browns upset the Saints earlier this season. A lot of people say the players are rallying around Manginiand playing hard for the coach. Only bet this if you havea whole lot of gamble in you.
Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.
This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.
Damn, another tough week last week here at Rubetastic. I take full responsibility for1-2 in last week’s picks. Once I have that responsibility in my hands I’m going to give it a jackknife powerbomb because screw it. I felt confident in my picks. I really should have gone ahead and made the Giants over Cowboys pick I alluded to last week. Then I would have at least went 2-2. I need to learn from last week’s mistakes and move on. Let’s learn together.
Last week’s picks:
Minnesota +2.5 @ Green Bay: WRONG- Why doesn’t Minnesota run the ball? Tavaris Jackson should start over Favre.The Vikings offense should be Adrian Peterson and getting Percy Harvin the ball and when defenses guard that well they need to get the ball to Randy Moss. Also, I have been surprised by the Vikings defense. The secondary is not supposed to be playing as well as it is, but the defensive line is not making the plays it should. As slow and hard as Minnesota’s collapse appears to be right now they are still dangerous. You can not write them off.
New England +3 @ San Diego: RIGHT- I didn’t understand this line going in. Was San Diego favored because of the east to west coast travel. We all know it’s west to east coast travel that affects teams more. That’s a large part of why I picked Carolina over San Fransisco the other week in my various pools and such. And San Diego’s skill positions are mostly horrible right now. Who’s going to make the plays? I think Patrick Crayton is the only receiver that is near healthy right now. The running game is a clusterfuck as well. I think Vegas lost money on this game. I can’t see even the less educated betting public betting against the Pats here last week.
Pittsburgh -3 @ Miami: WRONG- This was the most frustrating game for me to see because of how close it was and seeing another Big Ben screw up at the goal line (remember Super Bowl XL against Seattle?) I blame this spread loss on the Steelers defense, but I look for them to bounce back strong this week against New Orleans.
A Ravens cheerleader from week 7. Nice jorts, hun.
On to this week. There are some lines I really like, but wouldn’t advise others to bet. I have three that I will make “my picks” for the week. I’m going to try something new this week. I’m going to give you all of my picks against the spread, but highlight three as my “locks” for the week. I will only count those three toward my running total that I tout which is currently at 14-9-3.
Matchup My line Vegas line My Pick
DEN @ SF DEN -6 DEN -2 DEN
JAC @DAL DAL -1 DAL -6.5 DAL
MIA @ CIN MIA -4 CIN -1.5 MIA
WAS @ DET WAS -4 DET -2.5 WAS
GB @ NYJ NYJ -6.5 NYJ -6 NYJ
CAR @ STL STL -6 STL -3 STL
BUF @ KC KC -7 KC -7.5 KC
MIN @ NE NE -4.5 NE -6 NE
TB @ ARI TB -3 ARI -3 TB
HOU @ IND IND -5.5 IND -5.5 IND
I get why Vegas put their line for the Jacksonville @ Dallas line at DAL -6.5. It’s way smarter than my line. I sometimes forget the lines are set to induce betting on the side Vegas wants the money bet instead of actually trying to handicap the games. Even as bad as the Cowboys have been people will still bet on the Cowboys because of the “America’s team” mystique. It’s stupid, but a certain percentage of people bet on the Steelers, Cowboys, and Patriots regardless of where the line is at. Here are the picks I have more conviction in.
Seattle +2.5 @ Oakland?: Oakland has been playing well, way better than anyone thought. They have a few weaknesses, though. The lack of continuity at quarterback is going to catch up with them. Combine that with Seattle having a fairly good defense (+3 turnover differential, 10th in the league), and Oakland could have a problem on Sunday. I think the Seahawks game plan will be stop the run and cover Zach Miller. I think that game plan will win the game.
Tennessee +3.5 @ San Diego: Tennessee is playing too well for this line to be published. San Diego has not been able to run the ball well recently. This is not a good week to try to get that running game going. Tennessee defends the run well. The Chargers will get a few of their receivers back this week, but they are not whole. Don’t kid yourself. I’m not blind to the fact that Vince Young is still not 100% from his recent knee and ankle injury and he has been horrible against the Chargers each time he has played them. I would also like to point out Jeff Fisher has never beaten San Diego as a head coach. In spite of those past trends you must recognize these are two completely different teams, especially the Chargers. I actually like the Titans to blow out the Chargers.
Pittsburgh +1 @ New Orleans: If the Cleveland Browns can beat the Saints at home then it is definitely possible, nay, probable the Steelers can beat the Saints at home as well. The Steelers have one of the two best, if not the best defense in the league with a +9 turnover differential and some dominating performances turned in. The Steelers’ offense has looked better each week Roethlisberger has been back too. This game is not really about the Saints. They just happen to be the next team Pittsburgh is going to truck. This team is to be feared.
That’s all for this week. I expect to go 3-0 in the picks this week.
Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.
The two bangable chicks on The League (though they sure as hell don't look it here). I think the one on the left was a janitor on My Name is Earl. (I better be right about that. I'm not successful enough to make it without the Latinos.)
I was going to review the latest episode of It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, “Who Got Dee Pregnant?”, but that’d take all of one line to do (the episode was slow except for the McPoyle family, who are the one recurring face that never fails to amuse on that show). So, instead, I’m going to devote a couple of words to the show that follows Always Sunny each Thursday night, The League.
For those of you unfamiliar with The League, it’s the story of a group of suburbanite, 30-something guys who participate in a fantasy football league. Each week they get into some zany hijinks, throw around some fantasy football talk, maybe encounter an NFL player making a cameo and bam, it’s over before you know it. Sometimes, I even laugh. Sounds pretty innocuous, right?
Well, for the most part, it is. I don’t want to come off as some titanic blowhard ranting about how The League represents a new low in programming, because it doesn’t. My gripe is that it’s artificial as Halle Berry’s tits. (I’m sorry if that ruined any fantasies out there. They might be fake, but they’re still spectacular.) I couldn’t create a show more based around demographic profiling than if I went out there and pitched The Xbox MMA Maxim Monster Energy White Males with Money Ages 25-34 Happy Hour to Spike.
The show is a naked attempt at pandering to a demo, which would be fine if it wasn’t so obscenely formulaic, but each episode breaks down as follows: 50% zany plot line, 30% fantasy football talk, 10% reinforcing the thought that average to below-average looking men land hot wives, so you have sex appeal even if you’re not in the gym because you’re watching this show, 5% making you think that, even if you lead this vacuous lifestyle, it’s okay because you’re watching other people live the same life on television and 5% other. As you can see, there’s a lot of wiggle room for creativity.
So tell me if you agree with my assessment of The League. I’ll be the first to admit I’m a goddamn hypocrite, because I’ve watched pretty much every episode of the show thus far. But I’m not proud of that fact. (I like how I tried to end that one on a moral high note, like I haven’t watched every episode of Jersey Shore this season at least twice.)
Say what you will, but, compared to The League, this show's as indy as Resevoir Dogs.
[Edit: Papa G is new around these here parts and will be creating original content for us as well as sharing posts from his site, In Papas Basement, so be nice to him, or treat him like the rest of the staff. Whatever. This post originally aired here]
This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.
It is with hat in hand that I come to you after my first week picking more games wrong than right last week. My picks were 1-2 against the spread. I’m 13-7-3 for the year which is fairly good for the betting strategy I would advise people to use. O wait, I’ve never written about the betting strategy I would advise people to use. It’s simple really. This is the strategy I used when online betting was still legal, and I made money each season. I would then lose most of that money playing against poker bots online. I’m not sure if people are aware of this, but online poker sites are filled with bots, computer programs that play poker by calculating odds, statistics, and probability. It’s a great way to lose money and become homicidal. The poker sites catch a lot of people and are very proactive about the problem, but there’s no way they can completely stamp out the problem. Just an FYI. The way I placed bets was a simple process.
1. Not bet on every game, only the ones where I felt I had an edge.
2. Of those games I was going to bet on I would bet the same amount on each game so as to spread around risk. That amount obviously depends on your bankroll and what you’re willing to risk on a given week.
3. I would only bet more than the predetermined amount if I felt I had a significant edge on a spread. If that was the case I would only bet 1.5 times the usual increment.
So using that system you would still be doing ok with my pick even with these bad picks last week.
Atlanta +3 @ Philadelphia: WRONG- Wow, Atlanta’s secondary got destroyed by Desean Jackson (before he got destroyed by Dunta Robinson) and Jeremy Maclin. The biggest surprise was Atlanta’s pass rush not shutting down the Eagles’ passing game. I just completely whiffed on this game.
Baltimore +2.5 @ New England: WRONG- I predicted this would either be a blowout by Baltimore or a close back and forth game. The game was the latter, and I guess I have a skeptical disposition toward New England regarding their ability to be the “old Patriots.” What I mean by “old Patriots” is the ability to nickel and dime down the field, get it done on defense and win games by a field goal even thought they seemingly should have won by more. I still think the Patriot magic and mystique has worn off, but they apparently still have some fumes to run on.
Kansas City +4.5 @ Houston: RIGHT- This was my one correct pick from last week, and I barely got it right- half a point. That inspires confidence, right? I think Houston and in particular Matt Schaub showed a lot on Sunday having to go down and score a touchdown at the end of the game to win. I was impressed. Kansas City’s defense cracked some this past week in allowing a lot of points to Houston.
I shall now wash last week from my mind with a picture of a cheerleader from the week 6 NFL action
O good, hun, you’re already in position.
This week’s lines have what appear to be some minor goof-ups in spreads, but anytime I think I see a line that is messed up I must turn inward and evaluate why I truly feel that way. I have said before and will always say just when you think you have Vegas figured out they are going to make you look more foolish than a misspelled tweet. Let’s take for instance the Minnesota @ Green Bay matchup. The Vegas line is set at Green Bay -2.5 (favored to win by 2 and a half points.) When I was making my lines on Monday night I put it at Minnesota -2.5. I put Minnesota as the favorite thinking that if I were taking action on a game I would assume people would be more likely to put money on Green Bay, but they might be tentative if Green Bay were favored by too much. Then I thought putting Minnesota as the favorite, but by a small margin would induce more betting on Green Bay and therefore allowing me to keep more money people would hypothetically be betting on Green Bay and losing remembering that in reality I think Minnesota will win the game. I have to assume, though, that Vegas is smarter than me and either thinks setting the line at Green Bay -2.5 will induce more betting on Green Bay given that the Packers offense hasn’t fallen apart yet and that the Packers are coming off of a home loss (which is rare) and about to play a division opponent. The other possibility is I am completely missing the mark and Vegas thinks the Packers will win and people will bet on Minnesota and Favre playing out of his mind against his former team who scorned him and his will I retire/ will I not retire shenanigans. In which case boom, they got me because I think Favre will play well and another week Moss and Favre have had together should make them that much more dangerous on the field. I hope you followed that. I don’t even want to go back and edit it. Here are my picks this week.
Minnesota +2.5 @ Green Bay: see above. Also, it’s a Sunday night game and Favre always puts on a show on a bigger stage.
New England +3 @ San Diego: San Diego barely has any receivers available to play this week. Shit, they would start Kassim Osgood if he was still in San Diego this week. New England’s secondary barely has anything to worry about this week as Antonion Gates in injured and is not 100% sure if he will play at all this week. San Diego is turning into a joke and Norv Turner butt is probably starting to get warm (on the hot seat, get it?)
Pittsburgh -3 @ Miami: Pittsburgh’s defense is pretty good. This is actually a little disrespectful toward the Steelers. Is Vegas thinking all of the Steelers are going to be too scared of getting fined to hit anyone this Sunday? Child, please. The NFL players have already shown they are not going to take this revision of the NFL’s rules on hitting laying down. I expect there to be a lot of big hits this weekend, especially from the Steelers. Miami is coming off of a tough win on the road in Green Bay so I would not be surprised if some of their players have taken this week of preparation off mentally too. Quarterbacks have been getting exposed by Pittsburgh defense all year. If they can make Vince Young look stupid, you better believe they can make Chad Henne look stupid. Remember what New England did to Henne on Monday night? Yeh, you do.
13-7-3 on the year so far. I really wanted to pick the Giants to beat Dallas on the road to try to get ahead a little, but I’m going to leave it at three picks this week. Thanks for reading. (I know no one gives a flying shit about this, but I enjoy doing it.)
Sexy Disclaimer: This post is intended for entertainment purposes only. You assume all of your own risk when placing a bet either legal or illegal. Neither The Gally Blog nor the author assume any risk for any bets placed on advice or content contained in this post or on this blog.
