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Wednesday September 14th 2011

Posts Tagged ‘prop bets’

Rubetastic: Super Bowl Betting Extravaganza with Prop Bets

This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.

Super Bowl week! It’s the most wonderful time of year! So magical. Sports writers and television personalities regale us with tales of weather, hotel continental breakfasts, and other stories central to the actual game.
Let’s look back quickly at my Championship game picks.

Green Bay -3.5 @ Chicago: RIGHT. I don’t think the score would have been all that different if Cutler had been able to play the whole game. The Packers may have even won by more than they did. Green Bay was just top-down a better team. Clay Matthews disease gives him super human powers that are hard to contain.

New York Jets + 3.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers: WRONG. I don’t quite know what to say about this pick. I was less confident in it, but I thought the Jets defense would make the difference in this game. The game was too big for the Jets. Their play didn’t live up to their gameplan either.
On to the extravaganza!

Since neither team has cheerleaders I picked one of my favorites from this past NFL season.

One of the most interesting aspects of the Super Bowl is all of the prop bets. You can place bets on whether the coin toss lands on heads or tails (which I have bet on before), the over/under on the length of the national anthem, who will win the MVP and a host of other ways you can lose money. Go here for a complete list of action, but I’ll be highlighting some below plus picking against the actual spread as usual.

How Long will it take Christina Aguilera to Sing the Star Spangled Banner (from starting note to last note sung) Under/Over 1:54: I know what you’re thinking, suckers bet, right? There’s money to be made here. I looked up videos of Aguilera on Youtube singing the national anthem. I saw some over a minute and fifty-four seconds and some under. I tended toward more recent performances and I’m sold on the under on this one. I think she’ll embellish a little less than in her performances at the NBA Finals. Well, I should say the NFL event people will gently suggest she embellish less. This should be a classier performance since it will likely be one of the most watched things on television ever. It’s not about you, X-tina.

More after the jump—- (more…)

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