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Tuesday January 18th 2011

Posts Tagged ‘rubetastics’

Rubetastic: The Gally Blog NFL Betting Guide: Week 17 Wrapping Up the Regular Season

This is your weekly NFL betting guide written by the rubiest rube of all rubes, Nonpopulist. I have been making my own NFL lines since 2005, and while I am no expert I would rate myself as an above average prognosticator/ handicapper. The Rubetastic post will be a mixture of picking against Vegas lines, insight into why I think a line was set a certain way, what my own lines are and how I came to those lines, overall NFL betting trends I notice, apologies about being completely wrong the prior week, and a disclaimer that the post is all for fun and you assume all risk when betting on the advice of some jackhole on the internet.

As I stated at the beginning of the season the hardest 3 weeks for me to handicap are weeks 1, 2, and 17 of the NFL season. May I remind you of a few years ago when Bill Belichick “didn’t” but allegedly did tank a game in week 17 because it gave the Patriots a better draw in the first round of the playoffs. Another year I remember the Colts letting the Titans when Tony Dungy was still coaching the Colts. You can not convince me there are not shenanigans afoot in week 17 of the NFL. On top of that you have various teams checking out because they are ready for the season to be over since they are not making the playoffs. Still yet one of the most influential factors in these late season games is the coaching. Coaches are coaching for jobs either at their current location or to make themselves more appealing for the next possible position. I say all of that to say week 17 is a minefield. Stay frosty. It’s chess not checkers. Let’s look back at last week’s picks. I’m now 34-31-3 in picks against the spread this season.

New York Jets @ Chicago -1: RIGHT. The Jets lost and still made the playoffs. What was their motivation to win this game?

Dallas -7 @ Arizona: WRONG. Wow, maybe that ginger doesn’t want the coaching job in Dallas.

Baltimore -3.5 @ Cleveland: RIGHT. Cleveland is such a fraud team. I knew Baltimore remembered the first time the two teams met this season and would make the necessary adjustments. The only surprise I had at the outcome of this game was the margin of victory wasn’t greater for the Ravens.

Detroit @ Miami -3.5: WRONG. So the Lions went on the road to play Florida teams in consecutive weeks and won both games when they haven’t won a game on the road in how long? I can’t believe anyone predicted that outcome. If they say they did then they are a witch. BURN THEM!

Houston -3 @ Denver: WRONG. I hate Tebow so much. I don’t have many mortal enemies, but I’m considering adding another entry to the list. Make some room Leno.

New York Giants +2.5 @ Green Bay: WRONG. So wrong. I was operating under the assumption Aaron Rodgers was either not going to play or was going to be limited at least in the play calls that were going to be made for him. Way wrong. I’m completely floored by the Giants defense getting manhandled like they did. I’m not feeling as good about the Giants against the spread and in the playoffs.

New Orleans +2.5 @ Atlanta: RIGHT. This seemed like a split series to me. I kind of these teams meet in the playoffs. OOOOOOHHHH the storylines are getting me wet already.

Cheerleader picture then the week 17 picks……

Despite what I wrote above I am salivating at the possibilities this week. Then I immediately correct myself and try to realize my anticipation should be a warning sign. I know one thing for sure. I’ve been burned so many times on this one mistake I am never making it again… that much. Don’t ever “believe” in a team that needs to win to get into the playoffs. Don’t believe in the fire in their belly. If they have to win in week 17 in order to get into the playoffs most likely they aren’t strong enough to get it done. Here’s this week’s minefield of picks.

Jacksonville @ Houston -3: The Jaguars will not have David Garrard this weekend, not that he’s Brett Favre or anything, but it is his team and he is serviceable about half the time. The big hit is the Jaguars will be without Maurice Jones-Drew this weekend in Houston. As far as Houston goes the season has been another huge disappointment for the Texans, but the consensus is Gary Kubiak will be back again next season with the defensive staff being fired and Wade Phillips being added as defensive coordinator next season. I actually love that idea. Of course it will begin anew the cycle of Wade Phillips being recognized as a great defensive coordinator and another owner foolishly thinking Wade would be a good head coach. NFL owners are not very good at learning from history. Even though most insiders think Kubiak is safe it probably wouldn’t hurt to win another division game. (more…)

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